The first parliamentary elections since the devolution of Serbia-Montenegro into their own respective countries took place in Serbia on Sunday. Ultra-nationalist Radical Party took home the most votes of any party, with just less than 30% of the vote, but the victory will go to the many Western-oriented, democratically minded parties who will hopefully be able to bang out some sort of coalition in the coming weeks.

Here is the result as reported by ISN Security Watch.

Radicals take home the most votes, but a coalition of democrats could save Serbia from isolation, but not without a great deal of tough political wrangling, as Kosovo’s status hangs in the balance.

By Anes Alic in Sarajevo and Igor Jovanovic in Belgrade for ISN Security Watch (23/01/07)

With some 70 percent of the votes counted from Serbia’s Sunday general elections, it appears that Belgrade will usher in a democratic coalition government which will face its first big test over the UN’s upcoming decision on the status of the province of Kosovo.

But though a coalition of democrats will trump the radicals, who took home the most votes, lengthy negotiations will ensuewith the two main democratic parties wrangling over the post of prime minister. In the meantime, Western officials are urging the parties to expedite the process and ensure that the radicals do not outmaneuver the democrats.

Official election results are expected by the end of the month, while a new parliament must be formed and hold its first session by 25 February. The new government must be formed within three months after the first parliamentary session. If that does not happen, a new election will be called.

Serbia’s ultra-nationalist Radical Party (RS) – which opposes Kosovo’s independence and even declares some territories in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia as part of Serbia – won the most votes, just under 30 percent, but it was not enough for the party to govern alone and its coalition possibilities are weak.

The Western-backed Democratic Party (DS) of President Boris Tadic was second with 23 percent, nearly double its score in the 2003 poll, while the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS), led by Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica, was third with 17 percent, according to preliminary results.

Of all the candidates, Tadic is the most outspokenly Western-oriented of them all. To see him as the new prime minister would be fantastic. However, this will all depend upon how much leverage either of the two main democratic parties has. If Kostunica shows that he is willing to turn toward a coalition with the Radicals, then the Democratic Party will have to give up the post to him in exchange for the coalition.

Sounds like there could be a lot of backstabbing going on here, doesn’t it? That’s because, just like in so many developing democracies, Serbia’s political parties revolve around strong personalities whose main goal is generally the power. The struggle between Kostunica and Tadic for the country’s most powerful leadership post could prove divisive if they don’t do the democratic thing and compromise.

Whatever the result of such a coalition, however, the result will be not all that different. Geographically, Serbia must integrate into Europe or face isolation. Kostunica realizes this. It’s a fact that’s impossible to avoid. This is why he knows that he should, regardless, go into coalition with the Democratic Party. In party politics, pragmatism generally trumps all, but in personality politics, there is never a guarantee. If a coalition does come to fruition, either leader will result in a Serbia that is closer to the European Union.

Putting its hand into the honey pot, however, is the Kremlin. Russia has said that it will veto any resolution in the Security Council that goes against the wishes of Serbia’s government. This, regardless of the wishes of the people of Kosovo and the fact that Serbia has not controlled the province for more than half a decade. He has assured Kostunica of such an outcome. Russia has strong political and financial interests (and with Russia, they are always intertwined) in Serbia, so it will back whatever Belgrade’s wishes are.

Whether or not a coalition of democratic parties is formed, nationalism is a strain that runs strong still in Serbia. That is why we must not discount the Radicals plurality on Sunday, and why we must know that any decision to separate from Kosovo will not be popular among the public — even among those who support the democratic parties. The status of Kosovo, therefore, will be the splinter that whatever new government must start out with in its foot, an impediment to future negotiations with the European Union.

In the end, I think Serbia will just have to let Kosovo go. A Western-oriented coalition cannot ignore the call of the EU, the UN, and the United States to allow Kosovar independence. Acceptance of it will be crucial to acceptance from these three major institutions. What needs to be realized is that, in the end, both Kosovo and Serbia will end up as part of the European Union anyhow, with the borders between them vanishing. If this simple fact is realized, then perhaps this solution will be workable despite current feelings among the Serbian electorate.