For months now, Hezbollah has been leading mass protests against the democratically elected government of Fouad Siniora. It’s calculations as to the result were off, to say the least. Judging from how anti-Syria protests in 2005 toppled the government, on the surface it would appear as if the same strategy could work for Hassan Nasrallah. He studied the tactics and pulled off the demonstrations without falter.

Perhaps what he only saw was the surface. The demonstrations in 2005 were against a foreign occupier, not a democratically elected, domestic government. Unfortunately for Nasrallah, things did not go as planned. Despite all of his people — including many non-Lebanese — out there on the streets, all he got was a lot of nothin’. The fact is, Siniora still has a vast majority in parliament and enough street support to stop short any peaceful demonstrations against him.

Note the operative word: peaceful.

Today marked a change of strategy, either with direct or indirect instruction from Nasrallah himself. His supporters have turned to violence. Reuters reports several killed and over 100 injured, while From Beirut to the Beltway reports on the depth of Hezbollah carnage:

Hizbullah is calling this an “intifada”. And indeed, their supporters are now stoning anti-Hizbullah residents of Beirut. March 14 MP Walid Eido says that Beirut is “being occupied by the Hizbullah militia…”.

Update 2. LBC is showing footage of Hizbullah youth throwing rocks at the Lebanese army in Corniche al-Mazraa in true “intifada style”.

Update 3. Fares Soaid is lashing out at the security forces for arresting residents trying to open the roads after the failure of the army to do so. It seems the army’s strategy is to avoid confrontation and clashes at any cost, even if it means letting the protestors maintain roadblocks. In some instances where the army did try to clear rubble and burning tires, they were stoned by “opposition” members.

Update 4. Hizbullah thugs armed with sticks, rocks and in some cases guns are storming Beirut neighborhoods. Some were seen approaching the Future TV news building in Raouche. ISF and army troops trying to stop their advance are being attacked.

Security forces are being extremely lax and unorganized– intervening only when it’s too late.

Future TV reported that vans carrying covered Hizbullah women are supplying the rioters with rocks.

As we know from previous protests, there is nothing that is not organized by Hezbollah’s party leadership. These protestors have held off for so long that they are not going to simply start attacking the army and the people now of all times. (In fact, why am I saying protestors, when so many of them are trained Hezbullah militia men?).

Nasrallah was losing the long-term battle and now, even after preaching non-violence and supposedly being against a new civil war, he has broken the taboo by throwing the first punch. It’s all or nothing now. Lebanese society is running scared and what will determine the country’s fate now is whether or not the army stands up to keep the public order. As From Beirut to the Beltway has reported, the army has done nothing to stop the violence. The next step is to watch it disintegrate along sectarian lines.

It might be appropriate at this time to label the post “Lebanon Civil War Watch.” Tomorrow will be the day to watch. After the precedent of violence in the street has been breached, the days to come will be the most precarious of all. Hopefully there will be no doom and disaster. But I have a feeling that Nasrallah has a surprise for all of us.