Voting has begun in Lebanon’s southern district.

Six of the South seats have already been taken by ticket members officially declared ‘winners unopposed’ in Sidon, provincial capital of the south, and in Jezzine, South Lebanon’s largest Christian city. Jezzine’s population was staying away from the polls to protest the concept of Christians being carried to parliament by overwhelming Muslim votes.

Polls opened at 7 a.m. (0400 GMT) in the region that sits on Israel’s northern rim and are scheduled to close 11 hours later. About 665,000 men and women are eligible to cast ballots, but the turnout is expected by the local media from 30% to 40%.

That’s some dry stuff, but this particular round of the Lebanon elections will have a profound impact on the direction of Lebanese politics in the near future. This is because Hizb’allah has made an electoral alliance with its usual arch-foe, the Amal Movement led by Speaker Berri. They compounded a list of candidates together and are expected to sweep every single seat in the district. There are 23 seats out of 128 total in this district, of which six have already been won unopposed. The list includes a candidate from the Baath party and the Syria Social Nationalist Party. As you may recall, the leader of the Amal Movement has backed Syria in the past, and Hizb’allah has done the same.

Even though this Amal-Hizb’allah alliance will sweep the south easily, there is still some controversy. Because the 2000 election law was not constitutionally amended on time due to Nabih Berri, the leader of Amal and speaker of parliament, hamstringing popular opposition attempts to do so. These efforts would have brought about smaller electoral districts, giving more precise representation of certain groups. Because this did not happen, the Christian minority in the predominantly Shiite south has been called to boycott by some local leaders because their Christian representatives are being chosen and elected by backers of Amal-Hizb’allah. In short, they want to choose and elect candidates who moreso represent their interests.

The other controversy is with Hizb’allah itself and how it will be disarmed. If a newly elected parliament insists that it disarm immediately, and it does not, then it will simply look like the puppet of Syria and Iran that it is. It’s strategy, therefore, is to transform its image from one of a regional player to that of a geniune, 100% Lebanese political party, something that has been reflected in Nasrallah’s rhetoric of late. The reason for keeping its weapons then? Resistence to Israel and the the liberation of Shebaa.

Nasrallah has made many political alliances to ensure that he doesn’t have to disarm immediately. Bahia Hariri was given an uncontested seat in the South in exchange for a Hizb’allah seat in Beirut. Walid Jumblatt, an opposition Druze leader, has pledged support and at a rally two weeks ago, Nasrallah announced that a deal was to be honored with Sunni opposition leader Saad Hariri to not disarm Hizb’allah. In return, Hizb’allah backed Hariri in Beirut last week, and will be backing him in west Bekaa next week. It will also back Jumblatt in some electoral districts of Mt. Lebanon next week. On the other hand, it has also backed Jumblatt’s rival General Aoun in other districts of Mt. Lebanon. Nasrallah will have a lot of friends from all over the spectrum of parliament, as he seems to have backed lists in the more contentious districts where the candidates are particularly in his favor. Aoun, for example, has teamed with with pro-Syria Talal Arslan despite being against Syria himself.

This means that Hizb’allah’s electoral power extends far beyond how many seats it holds explicitly. Nasrallah essentially wants to keep his political influence as long as possible, and part of that has always been having an armed militia under him. In order to do this, he can make deals with just about any politician who will support him, and because this is his only issue, can easily throw his votes toward all manners of people. This will gain him a lot of sympathetic politicians in his pocket, while Amal’s Berri is looking to be re-elected as the speaker of parliament again. In effect, this makes Hizb’allah the wild card of Lebanese politics.

Still, the main driving force in the new parliament will be the alliance between the anti-Syria Sunnis and Christians led by Saad Hariri who looks to be the potential premier. He and those around him insist that the issue of disarmament with be an internal issue, resolved by the Lebanese and the new government. As I said earlier, with a new parliament free of Syrian influence, Nasrallah will have to play his politicians wisely. If the parliament decides that Hizb’allah must disarm, and Nasrallah refuses, then he will look like a puppet and will immediately lose all credibility with the Lebanese. On the other hand, the potential of an armed militia that refuses to disarm is a dangerous prospect. The attempt will eventually come, but it will be likely set in the long-term and in a way that isn’t disruptive to the stability of Lebanon.

There are still two rounds of elections left. Next week will be the Bekaa and Mt. Lebanon, which will likely be the most exciting and contested round as Walid Jumblatt and General Aoun go head-to-head. The opposition is also looking to oust Syria-installed President Lahoud, and will start staging a massive sit in at the palace on Monday. This is also something that we will be watching with great interest as the rest of the elections unfold.