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A QUICK WORD OF WARNING ON THE IRAQ ELECTIONS

Today’s parliamentary election in Iraq will be the first that includes all major and minor groups turning out in full, making it the first truly representative government the country has had — ever. The important virtue of this is that of legitimacy, the only quality that will allow the government to operate as it needs to without major resistence. It would certainly begin the spelling of the end of the insurgency since their grievances would be able to be aired in official negotiation with other political parties.

I am especially concerned about domination of the Interior Ministry by the Shiite party The Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, which is connected to the Iran-linked militia The Badr Corp that basically dominates the south of the country. Reports that a truckload of forged ballots coming in from Iran, though denied by this same department, should be looked upon critically. In a country whose worst problem is corruption, voter fraud is not entirely unlikely, and I would venture a guess that it is the most likely in the south of Iraq where everything passes through the hands of the Badr Corp. Monitors will need to have eyes like hawks, and election complaints will need to be thoroughly investigated and honestly concluded so that any doubts as to the legitimacy of the new government within mainstream Iraqi society are diminished.

I do not expect this to be a problem throughout the entire country, but I think that it is something worth looking out for in areas where there are militia troops that intimidate the populous and harass the developing civil society.