Felipe Calderon and Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador
Source: Reuters, via Yahoo!

I drove to Tijuana today, the city in the greater metropolis of 4 million on the farthest northwest corner of Mexico, to witness one tiny piece of the most momentous presidential election of the year – Mexico’s.

Seventy-one million Mexicans were qualified to vote, and based on the scene here in Tijuana, they took it seriously. Everyone voted. Many of those who forgot to register to vote from the consulates in the U.S. drove to Tijuana to vote – and there were polling stations right over on the other side of the border specifically for them.

I called my Spanish teacher at the community college and asked him if I could join him in Tijuana that day. He said sure. The last time I was in TJ was 2003, and it was on a class field trip.

We came to the border early in the morning, amid thousands of Mexican expat voters who were crossing the border into Mexico, pushing the creaking metal gates into Tijuana, to vote for president as the sunrise broke across the east.

Tijuana was resplendent with red signs for Roberto Madrazo of the patronage-left PRI party, which had ruled Mexico for 71 years until it was ousted six years ago. But most people I met said they planned to vote for Felipe Calderon, of the center-right PAN party, which has had northern Mexico as its political stronghold for many years, since at least 1986. The PAN has been winning elections for years here – but the PRI ruling party didn’t start “letting” them win elections until many years after that.

What was striking to me was that despite discontent with the PAN party under Fox, support for PAN seemed to be rock solid and the people’s faith unshaken. Many people cited their faith in free trade and desire to remain friends with the U.S. I found that moving.

Despite what you might guess from possible over-the-border trips, this northern region is the most prosperous part of Mexico. But amid that prosperity, Mexicans seemed to be more concerned about personal security than usually is reported in the press. Jobs and education have been the dominant reported themes, but what stood out to me was people’s top concern here being security. It wasn’t just a few people, it was a lot of them.

Not only was security first on people’s minds, they believed Felipe Calderon was the man who would be most likely to do something about it. I took a photo of a Calderon campaign poster. It was posted on a house that was literally a cage, it was so covered with security bars. Those two factors seemed to fit together.

At a polling station, I met two ladies just leaving the polls. One proudly told me she was an “ama de casa” which in Mexico is still a very honorable title – it’s housewife. She was the wife of a spice packager and said she was voting for Calderon because she was terrified of all the kidnappings going on – and most were never reported in the press, she said.

A Mexican named Alfredo, headed to the beach with his wife and three of his six children, told me the fear of kidnapping was twofold – part of it was that the kids themselves could be kidnapped. The other part was, even if they weren’t, and a ransom had to be paid, that would take food out of the childens’ mouths, something that was too scarce.

The media has usually identified PRI candidate Roberto Madrazo as the candidate for the security question. What makes that ironic is that most Mexicans cited the PRI as involved in the kind of crime now going on in northern Mexico. A taxi driver in a red Hawaiian shirt told me there was no doubt the cops were doing most of it.

The crime corresponds to an escalation in the drug war, which is where many Mexicans directly attribute that to the PRI, which controls many parts of northern Mexico, including Tijuana, but also has a history of involvement with drug cartels.

A couple weeks ago, there was a grisly multiple murder in Ensenada, where three honest cops and a Mexican-American from Arizona were lured into a trap by drug dealers and then beheaded. The four heads were put in a bag and taken, for some reason, to Tijuana. The headless bodies were left behind until they were found. It was sick, Zarqawi-style stuff and very much on the minds of Tijuana’s voters.

One of the more interesting sidebars to this is the nutty nature of Tijuana’s PRI mayor. He’s a freak. He’s been busted a few times for contraband trafficking in wild animals at the U.S. border. His house smells of bear doo and he keeps live tigers in the yard. His animal fetish is the least of his lunacies. He is immensely wealthy and the son of Carlos Hank Gonzalez, a former mayor of Mexico City who famously said that ‘a politician who’s poor is a poor politician.’ He made some money running dog and horse tracks, and many residents say he’s got friends in the drug cartels. This crazy son embodies not only all that is wrong with the PRI itself, which includes drug problems, but his own inbred mutational attitude that scares people. He says wilder things than even Hugo Chavez. A hardened television reporter said that the only time she was ever scared in Mexico was when she was in a van with this Tijuana mayor. He was that crazy.

Amid bright red banners of various PRI operatives and some red-shirted PRI operatives, I did not meet anyone who said he wanted to vote for the PRI in Tijuana. I found only Calderon supporters and a couple of Lopez Obrador voters, too.

Jobs and education were seen as important to them, too. Jobs were seen as a necessity because no one ever wanted to take anything from anyone. Alfredo told me he had $15 to his name, and had spent $3 of it on a trip to the beach with his family. But if anyone had offered him money, he would say no. He just wanted a job that would pay him more. He had worked for 30 years at CSI, hauling steel, in Fontana, Calif. and as a trucker in Yakima, Wash. What he was earning now in Mexico, since returning two years ago, was so little! If only he could earn that kind of salary he used to earn in the states! More employment oppportunity was critical, he sad.

On education, he said that every parent had to pay $30 a year per kid (and he had six of them), as well as books and supplies. But that was not all. The schools were grossly overcrowded, there was only one of them where he was, and if his kids did not get in, they would have to go to another district – and pay for the transport, too. It was like the state was issuing them an invitation to homeschool. It was unworkable.

I found one voting center in front of a public library. Voting took place on the grass. People lined up and voted as a big billowing Mexican flag rippled in wind overhead. All around them, families held picnics and barbeques on the grass. It was peaceful. The only cops around were three blue-uniformed patrolmen, and they seemed to think there were more things to police over at the beach. At the library, the parking was plentiful and easy. No one felt threatened or saw the polling places as unfair. The spice merchant’s wife told me she had faith in the system.

I went inside the grassy poll area and spotted a young man with a ‘no hablo ingles‘ t-shirt. I knew that guy spoke English because only someone intimately aware of the US immigration debate would recognize the subtlety of that slogan to a U.S. person. Turns out he was a good humored bank teller who worked in Chula Vista. He had U.S. citizenship so he could not vote, but wanted to be there to observe. His brother was there and he voted. He was carrying a copy of Proceso magazine – leftwing but intelligent – and thought the setup looked free and fair. I asked him what he thought of Hugo Chavez. He said no one could stand the guy, including him.

I went to a family beach area where tons of little kids flew kites, set up tents, played beach ball, or splashed in the waves while their parents watched.

There were about 3,000 people on that wave-crashing beach, where the horizon was blurred by mist, so it had the mysterious look of no horizon, just waves coming in from the sky. People said they had voted and some showed their marked thumbs, mostly again for Calderon. They mostly wore shorts and t-shirts because they could not afford bathing suits.

Freddy, the man who had worked in the US for many years, said that it was a special event for them, and the only entertainment that poor people could afford.

Some packed up big picnic feasts and some had just simple things like one watermelon to share with the whole family. One pickup truck was loaded with eight little kids, and mom and pop up front. The father said he voted for Calderon. There were only a few AMLO bumperstickers in fact, mostly near the border itself.

BLOG ROUNDUP:

The polls are closed now and the result is very close. Michelle Dion at La Profesora Abstraida reports that several exit polls show that Calderon has a slight lead in the race. Read it here.

Mark in Mexico has even more details about the closeness of the election in this fine post here. He speaks of being exhausted, and I must say, a day in the blazing TJ sun left me the same way. I could barely write last night, I was wiped out. Read Mark’s election updates here.

Jim Hoft at GatewayPundit has an excellent news and photo roundup here.

Steven Taylor at PoliBlogger has a political scientist’s reading and some historical context about this whole thing here.

How’d I miss this? Matthew Shugart at Fruits and Votes has a ton of excellent posts on the outlook for Calderon and AMLO with lots of rich detail about the political nuts and bolts of the political process there. Read his posts and you’ll be well informed. First, the latest update here. Next, click here and just keep scrolling, there are several well done and interesting background items.

Daniel Duquenal at Venezuela News & Views has an excellent analysis of it all from a Venezuelan perspective. He points out that Mexico’s future is less than sanguine due to all the institutional contraints inside Mexico. That said, he says the dignified AMLO, as old fashioned as he is, is highly unlikely to be the kind of leader who will put up with Hugo Chavez’s barnyard manners. It’s well worth reading here.

Michael Barone, filing from Mexico City, has absolutely awesome coverage, minute by minute, the best you’ll ever see, on Real Clear Politics, here.

Joshua Holland, in a superb essay on AlterNet makes an impressive case for the need to stop conspiracy theories in this must-read here.

Academic Elephant, at Elephants In Academia has more thoughts about the rapidly improving situation in this post here.

Boz at Bloggings by Boz has a really excellent Five Points for Mexico feature that is a must read. I really agree with him on all five points, especially the one debunking the canard that Calderon will necessarily be a weak president. I saw those congressional numbers and I think he’s going to have an easier time than Fox. Not only that, he can get along with people who could not get along with Fox – after all, he won the PAN primary, against Fox’s wishes. I am an optimist here. Boz’s post is a must-read here.

Erwin C. at The Latin Americanist has a first-rate summary and analysis I’ve just discovered that is well worth reading here.

Frau Budgie at Red Hot Cuppa Politics has some very good, excellently informed commentary about what’s good in Mexico’s electoral system, and links to many more blogs in this post here.

WALL STREET:

Goldman Sachs has some excellent commentary as to why the Mexican markets rallied so strongly:

Focus: Mexico
IFE Will Recount the Votes, But Calderon Has a 1.0% Lead Over AMLO (98% of the Votes Counted)

With 98% of the voting returns already tallied, preliminary official results from the electoral institute IFE indicates that Felipe Calder????n (PAN) won the presidential elections with a 1% advantage over AMLO (PRD), or 380 thousand votes. It is worth noting that the IFE nullified 825 thousand votes.

On current trends the election is shaping in favor of Calder????n, but the critical thing to watch over the next few days will be how the candidates react to the official numbers and any eventual challenges to the results.

IFE will now proceed to compute all the certified voting return from the 300 electoral districts on Wednesday and only after that will it disclose the official results. Even so, and barring no last-minute surprises (in terms of irregularities), senior IFE officials stated that it is unlikely that the recount will materially change the current reading, namely, that Calder????n likely won. In the meantime, the IFE continues to appeal to all political parties, candidates, voters, and the media to show restraint and act responsibly by not prematurely declaring winners.

Over the next few days, it will be critical to monitor the reactions of the key candidates to the prolonged uncertainty. On Sunday night, contrary to IFE’s recommendations, both L????pez Obrador (AMLO; PRD) and Felipe Calder????n (PAN) declared victory in the elections.

This morning, the tone of the candidates improved somewhat. Calder????n sounded conciliatory. He invited AMLO to concede, saying it is statistically impossible for the PAN and its candidate to lose the 1.0% lead with fewer than 2% of the returns to be tallied, and that the electoral process was clean and transparent. Calder????n also called for some form of cooperation in the future, trying to apply to his potential administration some of the calls for change and better administration coming from the supporters of the PRD. In turn, AMLO continues to insist that according to the PRD’s monitoring system, a victory is likely his, but he said that after reviewing the IFE’s data, he would accept the results, even if the Institute confirms a victory for Calder????n.

President Fox appealed to the nation to respect the IFE’s decision, stating that every single vote will be counted and its intention respected. In addition, President Fox and his spokesperson canceled all public appearances to avoid making any statements about the elections.

It will be equally important to monitor the position that Roberto Madrazo (PRI) adopts-with 21.6% of the counted vote, Madrazo is currently a distant third (or lower than what the pre-election polls indicated)-i.e., whether he will endorse or reject/dispute the winner that IFE is to disclose on Wednesday. We believe that Madrazo and the PRI are likely to accept the declared winner, thus contributing to isolate any eventual claims of fraud and other irregularities by the losing side. While there is a risk that Madrazo and the PRI could stay on the sidelines or even hint at a flawed election, we believe that the probability of that happening is small, unless the vote recount detects flagrant irregularities.

As eventual victory by Calder????n would be quite positive for asset prices (markets had largely priced a victory by AMLO), because he is likely to reach across the aisle to seek the support of other political forces (which would improve governability and increase the effectiveness of his potential administration). In addition, his policy platform is likely to preserve the hard-won macro and financial stability achieved over the last few years and would be relatively market-friendly.

We believe that Calder????n would appoint a strong economic team, while pursuing the much-needed reforms in the labor, energy, tax, fiscal, regulatory, and infrastructure sectors. Therefore, if the IFE indeed confirms that Calder????n won, we believe that there remains substantial upside for Mexican financial assets, including the MXN and interest rates. In terms of market action today, the MXN rallied to $11.10 per US dollar, from $11.48 on June 26. The local yield curve rallied, while the stock market gained 3.7%. UMS 17s tightened 10 bps, wile CDS 5 yr rallied to 70 today from 80 on Friday.

In terms of the Congressional race, the results confirm the almost complete division into thirds of both houses. For the Lower House, the PAN took the lead with 33.7% of the seats, while the PRD rose to second with 29.0% and the PRI fell to third place with 27.6%. For the Senate, the PAN leads with 33.9% of the seats, while the PRD strengthened to second, with 29.8%, and the PRI fell to third with 27.4% of the seats.

Based on the electoral reports released by the IFE thus far, we advance six conclusion:

1. Elections are not over until they are over. Although the IFE has already processed almost all the votes, the official result will only come after a recount. There is also a risk that a candidate may appeal the results of the election.

2. For now, the data supports the view that the presidential race will likely be defined in favor of Calder????n (PAN), although we cannot rule out a small surprise by L????pez Obrador (PRD). Given the weaker-than-expected showing of Madrazo (PRI; 21.6%) it seems there might have been some tactical/strategic voting by PRI supporters in favor of Calder????n.

3. The PRI fared poorly at all levels (presidential, legislative, and gubernatorial races) and will loose the hitherto dominant position it enjoyed in both the Lower House and Senate.

4. Power in Congress will be broadly and almost equally divided between the three main political affiliations and the PAN is emerging as the party with the largest representation; albeit short of a simple majority. If Calder????n is confirmed victor, we believe that he could form reliable alliances with the PRI to be able to approve some of the structural reforms that he promised during his campaign.

5. PAN candidates seem to have prevailed in the gubernatorial races in Guanajuato, Jalisco and Morelos.

6. As expected, Marcelo Ebrard (PRD), former Security Chief of Mexico City who worked under AMLO, is the winner of Mexico City mayor’s race with almost 50% the vote.