Hezbollah has just announced that is ready for all out war with Israel, according to CNN. The declaration was made after Sheik Hassan Nasrallah’s home was bombed and Hezbollah’s headquarters were destroyed by Israel. Mr. Nasrallah is the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
As I have followed the rapid escalation of events in Israel, I have been impressed potential for prolonged violence and general instability. At the moment, I really question whether Israel’s response is warranted.

True, Hezbollah has kidnapped several Israeli soldiers. According to Hezbollah, the hostages were taken so as to facilitate a release of Hezbollah militants being held in Israel. So, Israel has been undeniably provoked.

But is the level of response reasonably proportional to the offense? If guerillas from Mexico kidnapped a 5-10 U.S. soldiers, then would America indiscriminately bomb the border areas? Surely the problem could be addressed in a such a way as to better reduce civilian casualties.

However, even if the current level of military response is justifiable, I’m not convinced it is in Israel’s best interest. PM Fouad Siniori????????s government is pro-democracy and relatively anti-Syrian and anti-Iranian; ideal for furthering Israel’s interests. Yet Mr. Siniori presides over a fractured political landscape.

Indeed, the state’s capacity is weak and Hezbollah runs numerous social programs that the state is unwilling or incapable of providing on its own. This is one major reason for Hezbollah’s popularity and for its stronghold and support in the south.

Incidentally, Lebanon????????s limited capacity means it is largely unable to control Hezbollah. Thus, holding Lebanon as a whole accountable for the actions of extremists, as Mr. Omert insists upon doing, is largely indefensible.

Nevertheless, it would seem then that weakening Hezbollah would strengthen Mr. Siniori’s government. True, but the reverse is more likely to take place in practice. For one thing, Israel’s bombing campaign is destroying Lebanon’s infrastructure which further weakens Beirut????????s capacity to govern. In addition, the armed conflict is also damaging Lebanon’s rejuvenated tourist industry – it is currently peak season. Thus, the war is drastically reducing a significant source of the government????????s revenues.

Further, the crisis is unlikely to have much effect on a decentralized organization such as Hezbollah. Hostilities may actually improve the organization????????s standing if it is able to continue its social programs.

So, I ask two questions: (1) is Israel’s use of force justifiably proportionate and (2) does it advance their long-term interests? It seems the answer is ‘maybe’ to the former, but ‘definitely not’ to latter.

UPDATE: Sorry everyone. Robert Mayer here. This is actually a post by Jonathan Taylor. I forgot to change the user id when putting up his draft. Excuse the mixup!