**Update 3/16**

Things are quickly speeding up in east Asia. Just last week, China unveiled a law that would enable it to attack Taiwan if it tries to secede. And I have to hand it to the Taiwanese. Given their position, it may just be smarter for them to remain “part of China” and still retain their democratic, free-market society… but they won’t settle for less. Taiwan is now pursuing a counter anti-secession law that would allow Taiwan to pre-empt an attack by the Chinese mainland.

Stepping up its opposition to China’s “anti-secession” law, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is expected to unveil today a draft bill giving the president the power to take “non-peaceful” action or other necessary measures, including referendums, without the permission of the legislature in order to safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty and territory. The draft law mandates that the president must report to the legislature on any such measures within 30 days.

China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) is scheduled to pass its “anti-secession law” today.

While the DPP is scheduled to make public its “anti-invasion” law today, the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) has proposed an “anti-annexation” law.

The DPP’s bill was drafted by Trong Chai (???????????????????), Sandy Chuang (???????????????????), Wang Shu-hui (?????????????????????), Chiang Chao-yi (????????????????????), Lin Kuo-ching (?????????????????????), Hsu Kuo-yung (?????????????????????) and DPP caucus whip Peter Lin (????????????????????).

Lin said his caucus will hold an international press conference at 2pm today to introduce the draft law to over 70 local and foreign media representatives.

Although only 30 signatures are required to make the petition valid, Lin said that his caucus has collected more than 50 signatures from lawmakers. They will submit the proposed law at tomorrow’s plenary legislative session.

The DPP’s seven-article draft states that the Taiwan issue is not a part of China’s domestic affairs but an international matter, and that it is necessary and urgent to swiftly enact counter-legislation to deter China’s annexation efforts.

In order to maintain a peaceful and stable relationship between Taiwan and China, the draft proposes the government adopt the following four measures.

It should take appropriate measures to push cross-strait exchanges to facilitate mutual understanding and trust between the people of Taiwan and China; push exchanges and cooperation in the areas such as trade, culture and sports; push for joint crime-fighting efforts and other projects conducive to strengthening peace, coexistence and prosperity across the Taiwan Strait and provide necessary assistance to private organizations or groups launching activities to counter the “anti-secession law.”

The DPP’s draft is similar to the TSU’s “anti-annexation” law, which will be changed to an “anti-invasion peace” law today.

Stating that Taiwan has existed alongside China since the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) on Oct. 1, 1949, the TSU’s 11-article draft states that “Taiwan is already an independent sovereign state and it is not an issue for Taiwan to declare independence or seek separation from China.”

The draft also says that the government should call a referendum and amend the Constitution to safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty if the cross-strait status quo is threatened. The president can resort to non-peaceful means to resist China’s annexation, the draft states.

But that’s not all. President Chen is urging one million Taiwanese to go outside and protest.

March 14 (Bloomberg) — Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian has asked for a million of the island’s people to join a protest march against China’s anti-secession law, a spokesman said.

The march, organized by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, will be held on March 26, Chen Wen-Tsung, director general of Taiwan’s presidential office, said today in a telephone interview. He declined to provide details.

China’s parliament today unanimously passed an anti- secession law that would authorize an attack against Taiwan should the island declare independence.

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council called the law an “impertinent act” and said the mainland should apologize.

Look interesting, to say the least. I hope China doesn’t go off the deep end here. The Peking Duck takes a look at the anti-secession law, and the comments section is filled up with insight. Mad Minerva also links to a couple of articles on US-Taiwan relations and China.

UPDATE: I’ve been reading more, and I bumped this post because this situation is being taken much, much more seriously in the straits than we realize.

Taiwan’s government is taking several measures to defend itself, the first being a possible defensive referendum.

The Legislative Yuan adopted a non-binding motion yesterday urging President Chen Shui-bian (????????????????????) to initiate a “defensive referendum” in reaction to China’s anti-secession law.

“Defensive referendum” refers to a right enshrined in the Referendum Law (??????????????????????????????????) in which the president can call a referendum, after obtaining the Cabinet’s approval, on issues of national security in the event of a foreign threat that places national sovereignty at stake.

The motion put forth by the Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) also urged the Cabinet to revise related regulations to make March 14 “Taiwan Anti-Invasion Day” and freeze all dialogue and exchanges with China, which including cross-strait charter flights.

The TSU motion also suggests that the legislature pass a resolution to express its position towards the anti-secession law and pass an “anti-invasion and peace law” as soon as possible.

According to a draft resolution entitled “Uniting Taiwan, resisting invasion and upholding freedom” put forth by the TSU, legislators across party lines are calling on the nation to unify and for all freedom and peace-loving people around the world to halt the vicious, aggressive conspiracy by a minority warlike syndicate within China and safeguard peace and stability across the Strait and in the Asia-Pacific region.

The draft states that freedom and democracy are universal values pursued by all mankind. It says that the people of Taiwan have walked out of the shadows of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)-China Communist civil war and Cold War over the past decades and are committed to seeking freedom, peace, democracy and economic development to become a prosperous, democratic and free modern nation.

It says that Taiwan and China are independent of each other and that the Chinese law is an invasion of Taiwan’s freedom and democracy.

The text of the resolution will be finalized through inter-party consultations, according to Deputy Legislative Speaker David Chung (???????????????????).

Premier Frank Hsieh (???????????????????) told lawmakers yesterday morning that the anti-secession law has put both sides of the Taiwan Strait in jeopardy of war and therefore the standard for launching a defensive referendum has been met.

“China’s legislation is a war bill that jeopardizes peace in the Taiwan Strait and pushes the cross-strait situation to a non-peaceful state,” Hsieh said.

“I am not adverse to amending the Constitution if China uses non-peaceful means to threaten Taiwan and put both sides in danger of war,” he said on the legislative floor in response to questions filed by People First Party (PFP) legislators Sun Ta-chen (??????????????????) and Chang Hsien-yao (????????????????????).

It doesn’t end at just legislation though. There is a news bulletin on the English version Taiwan government site saying that the government is creating “salvation teams” to defend the island.

Taitung, March 14 (CNA) An elderly farmer called on the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP’s) Taitung County Chapter Tuesday to summon local farmers to form a “salvation team” with the aim of saving the country in the wake of China’s enactment of its Anti-Secession Law targeting Taiwan. Sixty-nine-year-old Liu Chin-yu said that he will invite his counterparts from the eastern county to join the team and ask them to refrain from investing in China, even though the Beijing authorities are set to give Taiwan’s agricultural sector greater access to the China market. Saying that there has been one country on each side of the Taiwan Strait since the former Kuomintang government fled to Taiwan following its civil war defeat in 1949, Liu said that the enactment of the Anti-Secession Law by Beijing has fully exposed China’s hegemony. Liu also called for local farmers to take part in a DPP-initiated nationwide rally slated for March 26 to protest the law, which provides the Chinese authorities with a legal basis for using non-peaceful means against Taiwan if the island moves toward independence.

Everyone is being put into an ackward position because of this. Let’s start with Australia.

The passage of a controversial Chinese law allowing the use of force to prevent a Taiwan breakaway is putting pressure on the government of Australia, which is caught between defense treaty obligations to the U.S. and growing trade relations with Beijing.
…
The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act commits the U.S. to help Taiwan defend itself and “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.”

Were a conflict to erupt in the Taiwan Strait, Australia could also be drawn in because the 53-year-old ANZUS Treaty obliges Canberra to support the U.S. in the event of an armed attack in the Pacific.

Australia is a close security ally of Washington and last year finalized a free-trade agreement with the U.S.

But it is also discussing an FTA with China, now Australia’s third-largest trading partner, after the U.S. and Japan.
…
Prime Minister John Howard used the twin visits to emphasize that Australia could retain its crucial relationship with the U.S. at the same time as developing stronger ties to its Asian neighbors.

China has made it clear, however, that it expects Australian backing for its stance on Taiwan.

When he addressed the parliament, Hu urged Australia to play “a constructive role” in the peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan, stressing that the threat to regional peace came from pro-independence elements on the island.

An Australian newspaper recently quoted a senior Chinese official as saying that Beijing did not want to see the issue of Taiwan – which it regards as an internal matter – being taken up in bilateral military alliances, whether between Australia and the U.S. or between Japan and the U.S.

Speaking of the U.S. and Japan, this article highlights the benefits to Taiwan over their relationship. Bill has several more thoughts on the strategic necessity of this alliance toward containing Chinese aggression.

Of course, the People’s Daily thinks the law is in Taiwan’s best interest! But the question I have is, will the western world make the mistake of World War II and appease China?

BLOGS: Here are some more thoughts on the law, and what it means for Taiwan.

Ignoring the more hardcore responses, like changing the constitution, or a referendum on independence (which wouldn????????t have a chance of passing, even if they were sensible) – it????????s worth looking at what the reaction in Taiwan is likely to be.

The most obvious response is a ???????tit-for-tat???????? anti anti-secession law which would define Taiwans response to any ???????non-peaceful???????? actions by China. Of course, this law would be even more of a symbolic jesture than China????????s law: if it ever gets to that state, noone????????s going to be worrying about the legality of it all. The subtext would be a restatement of the position that Taiwan is not controlled by the PRC, and so can pass whatever laws it likes too. However, the odds are that the different parties in the legislature will have trouble agreeing the substance and wording of any law, which could scupper that idea.

A more likely response is to reconsider the long-argued-over weapons purchases from the US. The legislature has been stuck for several months over a proposed budget of NT$610 billion (üUS$20billion) for a special arms purchase package (with the KMT arguing for a reduced amount – despite the fact that they were the ones who originally brokered the deal); this law by China might just be the stimulus needed to get the package agreed upon.

However, the most likely response is more a question of what Taiwan won????????t do. In the last couple of months, President Chen Shui Bian has shown an increased willingness to negotiate with the other side; he hasn????????t actually changed his position, but his recent deal with the pro-unification PFP implies a softening of his stance. He has always wanted to restart talks with China, and it looked like he was maneuvering himself into a position which might make that possible. To do it, he would need the cooperation of the PFP, but also the support of his own party – which was already a bit shaky recently. The odds again him getting that support have just increased massively.

The fact that China have decided to pass this law now, when Taiwan have been making more concilliatory noises than at any time in the last ten years (which, granted, is not saying much), implies that China are not really too concerned about the lack of talks between the two sides.

More on the likelihood of invasion. Running Dog believes it won’t happen. Hat Tip to the illustrious Simon for the links.