Those in the United States and elsewhere who are pushing hard for the spread of democracy around the globe (including Publius Pundit) may soon get their toughest test yet. Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak recently made a much publicized announcement that the constitution was to be amended to allow for genuinely competitive presidential elections. Today the Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in Egypt but is nevertheless highly organized and motivated, held protests demanding that they be given a chance to run in an open election. Dozens were arrested, and judging from what I saw on Al-Jazeera today the demonstrations were pretty forcefull (I watch Arab satellite TV over the internet but don’t own a TV, so I don’t know what everyone else in the U.S. saw, if anything, about this).

If the Brotherhood gets to compete fully, those who advocate that democracy is the solution to terrorism will get their strongest test yet. The argument against pushing too hard for democracy in the Arab world has always been that it would lead to elections won by Islamists, and that they would then shut down the democratic process and begin to use the resources of the state to promote Islamic terrorism. The Bush administration rejected this line, and is pushing democracy everywhere.

I say that Egypt, not Iraq, may be the democracy movement’s toughest test because of the difference between the two countries. Iraq’s most prominent religious figure, the Ayatollah Ali Sistani, has long been a genuine democracy advocate. So it is not so surprising that the United Iraqi Alliance, which ran with his endorsement, would show its democratic bone fides after winning an election, as they have now. But in Egypt the Brotherhood is by far the most powerful Islamist movement, and the most powerful and well-organized opposition group in the country. While the Brotherhood has renounced violence as a means of taking power in Egypt, they consistently push for Egypt to abrogate its peace treaty with Israel and go to war, and is brimming with enthusiasm for jihadism in the Al-Qaeda mode.

Of course, it is not certain that the Brotherhood would win. Mubarak might win a free election, and there is also a non-Islamist opposition movement whose most prominent leader, Ayman Nour, was recently released from prison. The belief that the Brotherhood can win is based largely on their repeated success in winning professional and student association elections (lawyers, teachers, etc.). But perhaps their organizational advantage would be less key in a national election. I will simply note that if there is a free election and the Muslim Brotherhood does win, the world could face its first democratically-elected terroristic government – since 1933.

Contributed by Kirk H. Sowell at Window on the Arab World, and More!