The mainstream media largely missed it, but here at Publius Pundit we recently noted a flickering of Ukraine-style protests for democratic reforms in Bahrain. But there is danger as well, for part of the opposition is aligned with Iran (the Sunni-ruled country is majority Shia, but of course only a faction among the Shia population identifies with Iran). This is according to Geostrategy-Direct (subscription required):

ÄApril 5Å Bahrain has prepared for a major crackdown on the Shi’ite opposition aligned with Iran. The crackdown is being closely monitored by the United States, whose naval Fifth Fleet is based in Manama.

The target is Al Wefaq Islamic Society, which plans to organize a massive anti-regime campaign modeled after the protests in the former Soviet Union. Al Wefaq ignored government regulations and held an unauthorized demonstration of more than 20,000 on March 25… Al Wefaq claims a membership of 70,000 and has moved to openly challenge the Sunni kingdom. The organization held the weekend rally after the Interior Ministry refused to issue a license.

I’ll do some research and see what I can find on just how much of the Shia population genuinely supports an Iranian-style Islamic state. Public opinion in Arab countries is hard to gauge given the restrictions on expression, but there ought to be some information.

For now it may be said that an uprising gone bad a la 1979 would be a disaster, shifting the balance of power toward Iran and seriously damaging America’s strategic position there. Yet it must also be remembered that one of the greatest blunders in modern U.S. foreign policy was the decision of the first Bush Administration in 1991 to allow Saddam Hussein to repress the Iraqi Shia based on the mistaken belief that they would create an Iranian-style state there. We do need to watch closely, and tread carefully…

Contributed by Kirk H. Sowell at Window on the Arab World, and More!