As I begin writing this, it is 4:40am, and that makes me feel like starting out with the most ironic item of them day. Lebanon saves Syria from a car bomb. Yes, you heard that right.

A truck loaded with 40 kilograms of explosives was seized overnight while on its way toward the Syrian border, outgoing state minister Albert Mansur said yesterday. ???????The truck loaded with explosives was heading to Syria, according to sources of the investigation,??????? Mansur said on LBCI television. Police said security forces had seized a Hyundai truck in the northeastern district of Hermel, a few kilometers from Syria. They said the explosives were hidden under carts of vegetables. The driver, identified as Muwafaq Ibrahim, from the village of Hawsh Hala near the main eastern city of Zahleh, was arrested, they said.

Lebanese security forces raided houses in the border village of Al-Qaa, in the eastern Bekaa Valley, looking for evidence. It was not clear whether the two detained men had any links to four bombings that have rocked Christian suburbs of Beirut over the past three weeks, raising fears of a slide back into Lebanon????????s 1975-1990 civil war. In the latest sign of rising tensions, a hand grenade was lobbed down a street in the Christian mountain village of Duhur Al-Shweir earlier on Friday night, but no one was wounded and no property damaged, security sources said.

It isn’t so much of a coincidence that all of these explosives are coming out of the Bekaa Valley.

On the way back from Pope John Paul II’s funeral, Prime Minister Karami — the one who resigned and then was reappointed, pledged to resign again, but didn’t — said on the plane that he would form the new government on Monday. But it looks like he has hit a snag and once again failed to do so.

Last-minute hitches, among them a clash with President Lahoud, have forced Premier-Designate Omar Karami to cancel the scheduled announcement of Lebanon’s new government on Monday, getting the nation’s post-Hariri political crisis back to square one, An Nahar reported.
The surprise obstacles mark a serious rift within the ranks of Syria’s loyalists at a time the Syrian army is hurriedly withdrawing from Lebanon, terminating a 28-year hegemony under massive international pressure.

The hitches revolved basically around the new electoral law. They were compounded by sudden declarations from Vice Speaker Elias Murr and outgoing cabinet ministers Elie Firizly and Elias Skaff that they would not join the new government.

“Unless an 11th hour rescue happens, the government crisis is back to square one,” An Nahar said, citing sudden announcements by three potential cabinet ministers refusing to serve in the new cabinet as compounding the crisis.

Efforts to persuade outgoing Interior Minister Suleiman Franjieh, Syria’s staunch Maronite ally, to reverse his sworn rejection to take the same post in the new government “have hit a dead-end,” An Nahar reported.

Sources close to Franjieh told An Nahar he would be willing to retain the interior portfolio in the new government only if the spring elections are held under the electoral law he had tabled before parliament before the resignation of the outgoing cabinet.

That draft, which makes Lebanon’s 26 districts as electoral constituencies, “satisfies a great many Lebanese, especially Christians led by the Maronite Patriarch, Cardinal Nasrallah Sfeir,” the sources told An Nahar.

President Lahoud has taken an almost identical stance to that of Franjieh’s. Karami called Lahoud by telephone Sunday night to get his approval for the announcement at 11 a.m. Monday of a cabinet that would retrieve the district-based electoral law from parliament and put forward, instead, a new draft based on proportional representation with each of Lebanon’s six provinces as an electoral constituency.

But President Lahoud said he disapproved of proportionality and of the province as constituency, insisting on retaining the district as the base of the new law. Karami said he is committed to the Ein El Tineh decision to change the draft law, according to An Nahar’s account.

“At this point, Lahoud said he had pledged to Patriarch Sfeir to make the district the base of the new law and the council of ministers had approved the draft and he would not be able to abandon it,” An Nahar narrated. “Karami said their disagreement makes him incapable of forming the new government.”

This whole idea of proportionality seems dreamed up by Syrians loyalists, as it would give them much more representation than they would get under the current system when new elections are held. The Patriarch had had something to say about that.

Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir has counseled President Lahoud to form a concise government of four or six members to oversee the legislative elections on schedule in spring and then resign, leaving the newly elected parliament to decide whether or not to fire the president, An Nahar reported on Saturday.
The Patriarch told Lebanese reporters covering Pope John Paul II’s funeral in the Vatican that he made his views clear to Lahoud at a 45-minute tete-a-tete they held after history’s biggest-ever funeral was over.

“We have stressed that the conduct of the elections must come first and a new government be formed in light of the outcome at the polls,” Sfeir said. “Afterwards, the new parliament will decide whether or not to fire the president???????We have always advocated obedience to the constitution.”

The Patriarch said he also objected to the concept of Syria’s loyalists that the elections be held under a system of proportional representation with the province as the electoral constituency.

“The small constituency ensures the correct representation, proportionality is not understandable,” the Patriarch said.

Lahoud made no comment to reporters after the meeting and it remains to be seen whether he would respond favorably to the Patriarch’s views.

Speaker Berri and Premier-designate Karami are the main advocates of electoral proportionality and both are reportedly bent on having the cabinet made up of 30 ministers.

Imagine that. A Syrian puppet president in favor of this? No way.

Opposition leader Walid Jumblatt has called for elections to be held on time, as Karami has insisted they be delayed anywhere between three to six months. He is also striking a conciliatory tone with Hizb’allah, something momentarily necessary for keeping the peace and proceeding toward the elections.

BEIRUT, April 10 (Xinhuanet) — Lebanese Druze opposition leader Walid Jumblatt here Sunday rejected a delay in upcoming elections and urged for unity of the opposition factions to win the elections.

Jumblatt, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, told a press conference that “of course we insist on elections on schedule,” calling on the opposition to meet and come up with a programme.

“We should have a clear and ambitious answer to what’s next,” he said, predicting an opposition win regardless of the shape of the electoral law.

He also expressed his disagreement with the UN resolution 1559in what concerns Lebanon’s Hezbollah (Party of God) and called on the opposition to have a unified vision of means to hold dialogue with Hezbollah.

On the other hand, Lebanese Prime Minister Omar Karami is expected to unveil a long-awaited new government on Monday to lead the country into the election, saying the new government will draw up a draft law organizing polls.

Work on the draft is expected to take weeks, forcing a delay in the polls, political sources say, adding the opposition wants elections as soon as possible to capitalize on public sympathy after the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri.Pro-government loyalists want a delay of the elections in the hope that public fury will die down and divisions will appear among the ranks of a disparate opposition.

In the meantime, Hizb’allah has laid out its demands for discussions on disarmament.

BEIRUT – Hezbollah would be prepared to discuss the fate of its armed wing if Israel withdrew from a disputed border area, the Lebanese guerrilla group’s deputy leader said in a British newspaper interview on Friday.

Sheikh Naim Kassem said one alternative could involve Hezbollah’s fighters becoming a kind of “reservist army” working with Lebanese authorities, the Financial Times reported.

The United States and United Nations have called for Hezbollah to be disarmed.

Kassem said no talks could take place while Israel remained in the Shaba Farms area.

Lebanon says Shaba Farms is Lebanese land occupied by Israel, while the UN describes it as Israeli-occupied Syrian territory.

“We will discuss (Hezbollah’s) arms after Shaba, but on condition that a credible alternative is found to protect Lebanon,” Kassem told the Financial Times.

“A reservist army doesn’t mean the resistance becomes part of the army, but it is a formula of coordination with the army. It is resistance by another name,” he said.

Regardless of what Hizb’allah says in terms of its negotiations, the opposition seems to have the upper hand here. Jumblatt effectively neutralized their biggest demand of staying armed by saying that they should not be forced to by outside pressure (a la resolution 1559). Should Hizb’allah reacts to that in a protestive manner, it serves to delegitimize it as a Lebanese political organization holding the interests of the people at heart. If free elections are held on time and the opposition does have a sweeping victory, Hizb’allah can simply be voted to disarm. If it does not comply, then it will lose tremendous favor in the public’s eyes for not complying with the legitimate legislature. All in all, Hizb’allah will have to become a purely political organization integrated into parliament or risk losing a lot of its influence. Tony has a long post on Hizb’allah, with regards to this passage:

ick Blanford, who follows Hizbullah closely (and has talked with Raad, among others), told me of this possibility several weeks ago, after Hariri’s assassination. In fact, Qornet Shehwan member Nassib Lahoud proposed to hold the resistance as a “strategic reserve” until peace is concluded with Israel. Nick figured that this will be adopted as a face-saving compromise. Nick also thought that the Shebaa Farms campaign would cease (not that there’s much of a campaign anyway) and the Lebanese army would deploy to the border. Then, Nick wrote, “perhaps the Islamic Resistance would become some sort of frontier protection force under the joint command of the army and Hizbullah.” Perhaps, if that does take place and the army is in control (and Hizbullah is coopted and neutralized), it will provide an incentive for the Israelis to consider withdrawing from Shebaa (similarly to what they’re doing in the West Bank).

Based on Raad’s statements, it seems that all of the points Nick made are being seriously considered as a face-saving compromise. In the end, Hizbullah has little choice when the majority of the Lebanese are no longer comfortable with it retaining its arms indefinitely and acting out on its own. Hizbullah understands that, I’m sure, and their ultimate goal is survival. Right now they feel threatened, and they must realize that the Lebanese are their only real safety net.

The “Free Geagea” bill has so far gained a lot of momentum, with thirty legislators having already sponsored it.

Sitrida Geagea was reported Sunday to have planned a visit to Speaker Berri at his offices in Parliament sometime this week to lodge with him a draft bill signed by 30 legislators to amend the 1992 post-civil war amnesty law in order to get her husband Samir Geagea out of prison before the spring elections.
Several Beirut radio and TV networks said Mrs. Geagea’s move would set in motion the legislative machinations to free the Lebanese Forces commander from nearly 11 years in jail at the defense Ministry compound in Yarze.

Lebanon’s opposition front, which comprises more than 45 parliament members and several legislators from the loyalist camp have declared support in public for Geagea’s release so that he would be able to lead the LF in the spring parliamentary elections.

Syrians leave and… people brandish their portraits of Geagea!

The Syrian army has evacuated the key Bekaa Valley town of Deir Al Ahmar near Baalbek, triggering jubilant celebrations by the predominantly Christian population loyal to jailed Lebanese Forces Commander Samir Geagea.
Demonstrators took to the streets the moment the Syrians pulled away from their last post in Deir Al Ahmar. They brandished big Geagea portraits along with a forest of LF flags and Lebanon’s national colors.

The Deir Al Ahmar evacuation coincided with massive withdrawal operations that saw more than 200 Syrian tanks, armored personnel carriers and military trucks loaded with Syrian soldiers crossing the border back to Syria proper overnight through the Masnaa-Jdeidet Yabous pass, many towing anti-aircraft guns.

Aoun is also set to return to Lebanon purportedly by May 7.

EIRUT: Former Army Commander General Michel Aoun said on Wednesday from Paris he intended to return to Lebanon by the end of April. He said: “I have always said I would return to the country when the Syrian occupation of Lebanon came to an end and now the occupation is almost over. I will be back by the end of the month.”

He expected that he would be able to announce an official return date sometime next week.

The freedom of Geagea and the return of exiled Aoun are two major demands that the opposition has, actually.

On the more upbeat note, a campaign has been launched to revive Lebanon’s tourism.

Thousands upon thousands jammed downtown Beirut for a late night dinner extravaganza and overnight leisure at sidewalk cafes Saturday-Sunday, answering a call to stop mourning and revive a city buffeted by nearly two months of political and economic turmoil following the assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri.

His sister, Bahiya Hariri, the rising star in Lebanon’s politics, along with Nora Jumblat, wife of opposition leader Walid Jumblat, the slain premier’s longtime ally, are leading the campaign to revive the downtown district that was rebuilt by the slain prime minister from the ravages of the 1975-1990 civil war.

The campaign kicked off on Friday and is scheduled to bustle through April 13, which marks the 30th anniversary of the civil war outbreak. Banking on the true national unity generated among Lebanon’s 18 sects by Hariri’s tragic death, the multi-pronged drive has been dubbed ‘United Lebanon Above All, a Homeland for All.’

“The message to all is: Lebanon will stay alive, just like Rafik Hariri wanted it,” Bahia Hariri told reporters as she toured the posh restaurants and sidewalk cafes of the downtown district, lingering at her brother’s favorite caf???? just across the street from the Lebanese parliament.

Read my post on how Syria is using the carbombs to kill Lebanon’s tourism. They’re fighting back against it with good ole capitalism! This whole campaign started with the unity demonstration that took place on Sunday on the 30th anniversary of the civil war.

BEIRUT, Lebanon ???????? At least 20,000 Lebanese took part in a run Sunday to demonstrate unity after two months of political turmoil.

Under a warm spring sun, the runners set off from Beirut’s Riad Solh Square on a three-mile course that passed near the seafront boulevard where former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and 19 others were killed in a massive bomb attack on Feb. 14.

They finished at Martyrs’ Square, the scene of a demonstration that brought down the government and numerous other protests during the past seven weeks.

Hariri’s sister, lawmaker Bahiya Hariri, released 50 white pigeons to start Sunday’s event, which was dubbed ???????United We Run.???????

???????There is no fear for this country as long as this great people are adamant on upholding their national unity, civil peace, independence, freedom and sovereignty,??????? Hariri said in a speech before the start.

The run is part of a series of activities that will mark the 30th anniversary of the beginning of Lebanon’s 15-year civil war on April 13, 1975.

There will be concerts and exhibitions of art and photography.

Most of the participants wore white for peace.

Hussein Majid, who completed the course in a wheelchair, said: ???????I came to show loyalty to Lebanon and for the sake of unity among the Lebanese.???????

Blogs:
Mustapha notes that Jumblatt’s stances are turning from the opposition. I admit to being part of the group that agrees with the Hizb’allah negotiations as I think it will lead to their eventual snookering, but I definitely am against Jumblatt’s position on the electoral districting changes.

Eve at the Lebanese Bloggers Forum is really excited about the unity display and posts a whole list of fun activities to do. That “Kick Boxing” Shogun Club sounds interesting.

The Lebanese Political Journal has more info on the “Syrian Police” who were caught in Beirut. Apparently they were caught planting a bomb. Also, some thoughts on Hizb’allah and disarming.

And last but certainly not least, Michael Totten is blogging in Lebanon with fantastic photos and descriptions of everything going on around him. Check it out. This is original blog content at its best. Be sure to also consider donating to Spirit of America’s project there for keeping the tent city going through the elections.