Blogger Tim Russo, who did democracy work in Armenia, tells us not to hold our breath on a united opposition front there.

Armenian opposition parties might be the most splintered opposition in the entire former Soviet Union. Almost daily, some guy decides that the other guy running the party doesn’t deserve to run the party, and runs off to start his own party. “Opposition” alliances last about as long as Italian governments. There’s been so many parties, blocs, “unions,” and “fronts,” they’re running out of names for them.

The same can also be said for Azerbaijan’s opposition, who had attempted their own uprising in October 2003 but failed. It’s easy to look at some of the opposition movements and say there isn’t any hope for them — indeed, some countries could take even longer than we think to off the burden of tyranny. But with a common strategy in a desperate moment based solely on ousting the current regime, opposition forces can quickly appear out of nowhere. Kyrgyzstan showed that, and to a degree, also showed what happens when Ukraine’s degree of activist training cannot be applied.

This Jamestown article reflects further on the broad strategy.

A legal loophole allowing Kocharian to stay in power after 2008 would hardly please the West and could enable the opposition to mobilize greater popular support for its hitherto unsuccessful efforts to replicate anti-government uprisings across the former Soviet Union. Opposition leaders have already pledged to turn the constitutional referendum into a “referendum of confidence” in the Armenian leader. They have said that they are waiting for the “right moment” to make another push for regime change. They may well have election day in mind.

It’s no wonder we see all sorts of people when it comes to something this far-reaching: democrats, social-democrats, communists, rightists, leftists, you name it. What brings them together, however, is the promise that they will be able to at least work together to create a system where they can all fairly compete in elections. When faced with the prospect of never being able to test the resiliency of their respective ideas, it is no wonder this can happen in so many countries.

Of course, there are also government forces trying to impede this process. Armenia and Azerbaijan aren’t known for their freedom of dissent. Their leaders are also constantly poking the burning embers of war between each other; a possibility that would inevitably force support for the two governments.

Despite this, a parliamentary election in November 2005 is coming up in Azerbaijan. Having shown the willingness to stand up to the government in a big way before, they could very well be the next to adorn velvet.