Blogging the democratic revolution
Israel began its “disengagement” from the Gaza Strip five weeks ago, essentially removing all Jewish settlers within a week, although the withdrawal of the IDF from all Palestinian areas was not completed for a few weeks afterward. Prior to the withdrawal, there were some, including myself, who argued that withdrawing from Gaza without an agreement with the Palestinian Authority to disarm terrorist groups – especially Hamas – would lead to not only more attacks on Israel, but increased internecine Palestinian strife, possibly even the implosion of the PA itself, requiring a bloody reoccupation by the Israeli military. (If it helps…
The difficulties that Iraqi Shia, Sunnis and Kurds have had in governing their country following their elections have given the world lots of headaches, especially for the United States. But if you really want to see a group of political parties having a difficult time putting together a stable coalition, look to Germany. The best headline I’ve seen in a while comes from the English version of Der Spiegel: Germany Loses Its Own Election. Here are some other English language links from the same publication: Merkel’s Bitter Defeat Who Want’s to be Germany’s Chancellor? Preliminary Results Show Schroder, Merkel Stalemate…
I have now posted my Middle East Week in Review post for Sept. 18. I also have a seperate post explaining why I have decided to stop posting daily and instead focus on just posting 1-2 in-depth analysis pieces per week, plus my Week in Reveiw news bulletin.
The Weekly Standard published its 10th anniversary edition this past week, and as part of that had a series of articles from its writers on what they changed their thinking about given the passing of events. You have to have a subscription to read the articles, but there was one that stood out enough that I thought it worth excerpting. The excerpt is from Reuel Marc Gerecht, a specialist in international affairs and intelligence reform. I focus on this one because I have gone through a similar transformation myself. In both his case and mine, the 9/11 attacks were a…
Ever since the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri earlier this year, there has been a strong suspicion that Syria was behind it, although proof was lacking. The UN-led investigation of the murder seems to be turning up some clues, however. Meanwhile, U.S. and Iraqi officials turn up the heat on Damascus over its role in supporting the terrorist insurgency in Iraq. The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) commented on both issues today: …In Lebanon, a U.N. investigation led by German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis (and assisted by the FBI) is making arrests and turning up leads in the…
There is a new periodical out now dealing with U.S. foreign policy and America’s place in the world, The American Interest. Vol. 1, No. 1 is out this week; I purchased my first copy today. It is led by such intellectual luminaries as Francis Fukuyama, Zbigniew Brzezinski and Samuel Huntington, among others. Up until now I have mainly relied on Foreign Affairs and The National Interest for in-depth analysis of international issues (along with papers printed out from various think tanks’ websites and books). Given my backlog of purchased but mostly unread periodicals within this genre, I’ll now have to…
Al-Hayat is reporting that the editor of the independent newspaper Al-Wasat was kidnapped by armed men driving a government vehicle at about 6:00 a.m. on Aug. 23. He was bound, beaten, and threatened with beheading. Then they told him that he might want to “remember his children.” What did this journalist do to deserve this? As Al-Hayat reports: “Al-Wasat had published information regarding the children of government officials studying in the United States, Britain and Malasia with all expenses paid by Ästate-runÅ oil companies.” It has also “published articles criticizing the political system.” For more details, see this post from…
Joshua Landis at Syria Comment reproduces an interview with a Syrian human rights lawyer and opposition activist, Anwar al-Bunni. The entire post is worth reading, but I’m just going to excerpt part of it to focus on two issues: (1) the relationship between regime change in Iraq and the position of Kurds in Syria and (2) the relationship between the Syrian opposition and U.S. foreign policy. I’ll have some comments below. This is an excerpt from the interview, “Anwar al-Bunni: Interview with Syria’s leading Human Right Lawyer, By Joe Pace“: …We hear a lot that the Iraq war empowered Syrian…
I have generally had a moderate to good impression of Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution, to which Iraq’s current prime minister also belongs. Perhaps this is because when I have seen Hakim it has mainly been on Al-Jazeera, where he appears with other commentators, most of whom are yelling about how much they want to kill Americans, so he comes off as an epitome of reason and tolerance. But I think right now he is on the course of promoting an idea which is really bad. Hakim is advocating that the Iraqi constitution, which…
Earlier this morning Robert posted an entry on some Poles in Belarus who happen to be rock music lovers using their passion to protest against the government, based on a Radio Liberty report from yesterday (Aug. 3, see Rock Against the Regime!). Whether this was related to today’s crackdown or not, Le Monde is reporting that Belarusian police have arrested the Vice-President of the Polish Association of Belarus, Wieslaw Kiewliak, along with an aid. According to Le Monde, this is the sixth member of the organization that the government has arrested this week. The article notes the context; Poland is…
Yesterday Robert posted an entry, Pro-Mubarak Thugs Beat Up Kefaya Protesters, dealing with the attempt by democracy activists in Egypt to hold a rally and Hosni Mubarak’s violent reaction. There is also an article in today’s New York Times (registration required) on this, so I won’t go into the details. I wanted to add that there are some new photos of the attacks on protesters. You can see them here and here. (Hat tip: The Arabist Network) I would like to suggest that now is a good time for President Bush to announce that the United States is ending its…
A reader named “Cynic” made a response to my post, The Atlantic Monthly on Yasir Arafat, which raised both a valid factual point and an argument that needs to be rebutted, to explain why it is wrong. Cynic wrote: What is known and not discussed is that the State Department went along with the Arab League and the EU, in the 80s, and ???????elected???????? Arafat, and his PLO, as sole representative of the Palestinians. Now had this not come about, how many lives could have been spared? Imagine if the the families of the dead and the maimed could take…
An exceptional example of good journalism, the current issue of the Atlantic Monthly has a front cover article on Yasir Arafat, “In a Ruined Country: How Yasir Arafat Destroyed Palestine.” It is very detailed, and I think it would be especially enlightening to those who haven’t followed Arafat closely over the years, but even if you have it is worth reading. Written by David Samuels, it is based not simply on documentary records but on a series of interviews with old Arafat companions following his death. This is what makes it entertaining. You can’t read it online without a subscription,…
Earlier today A.M. Mora y Leon posted an entry on the necessity of passing CAFTA, and I wanted to add to that. Today the Wall Street Journal published an article which described the kind of negotiating going on in the House of Representatives over this trade pact, and in doing so illustrated the short-sightedness which seems to perpetually dominate that august institution (see “White House Barters for Trade Pact Votes;” A4, subscription required): As the House moves toward a vote this week on President Bush’s Central American trade pact, the White House is trying to cut deals to shore up…
This is a roundup for the Egyptian blogosphere (plus some other Arab blogs) and the protests against terrorism which they are organizing. I’ll be updating this post as I get new links. I would like to note that I was in Luxor, Egypt in December 1997, shortly after the gunning down of foreign tourists at the Temple of Hapsetshut there. It really hurt the local people and they were very angry. There were signs in the streets saying “No to Terrorism” in Arabic only; this wasn’t a campaign for foreign consumption. There was also an Arabic-only interview with Egyptian national…
Right now I am in the midst of a three-part series on the aftermath of the London bombings of July 7. I just finished part two early this morning, and part three will be a progress report on both current progress and failures in the global war. Two things I have read recently have prompted me to draw together some disparate comments on the Muslim role here – Karim Elsahy’s Pray4Peace project and the recently released Pew survey on Muslim attitudes toward democracy, terrorism and al-Qaeda. Karim’s project, Pray4Peace, centers around the idea of a Muslim-led campaign, inclusive of members…
Last Tuesday I posted an entry about Egypt, Egypt Legalizes Moderate Islamist Movement, which suggested a watershed event for the Wasat (Center) Party, a moderate Islamist front. I also posted the same entry on my blog, and a reader who is apparently from Egypt made the point that there is still a level of review above the court which approved Wasat’s political license, and that the government has in the past used this higher level review to disapprove of parties. My post may therefore have overstated the significance of this event. You can read the comment and my response at…
According to Al-Hayat, the Jordanian government of Prime Minister Adnan Badran is having further problems surviving a vote of confidence due to recent increases in the price of basic foods (see “The Badran Government Seek the Confidence of Representatives and Opposition Parties Call for Him to Leave,” July 15, but no longer on the paper’s site). This is a partial translation: …Tens of demonstrators representing the leaders of the parties and the heads of the professional unions demanded the resignation of the government, describing it as “The Hunger Government” and holding up signs rejecting the government’s decision to raise the…
Al-Hayat has reported that an Egyptian court has legalized a moderate Islamist political movement (“Egypt: Judge Qubtay Grants Islamist Party a License by Decree“). Under Egyptian law, political organizations have to have a license to operate, and the country’s largest Islamist organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, is still denied one. This decree means that the New Center Party, led by Abu Ala Madi, an engineer, is the only legal Islamist party in Egypt. The article notes that this decision overrules a decision by the state Council for Party Affairs. The party, associated with what in Egypt is referred to as al-wasatiyya…
Reality Check Time on the Israeli/Palestinian Front – Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, now scheduled for next month, is leading the Israeli-Palestinian peace process – if such a thing exists – toward disaster. Ironically, the withdrawal, known in Israel as the “Disengagement Plan,” has wide support everywhere in the world outside Gaza itself – from most Israelis, from other Arab governments, especially Egypt, which is helping in the implementation, from the European Union, the United Nations and from the United States. I originally supported it myself, but it has become clear to me that this will lead to a…
The peace process continues in the Sudan, at least with regard to the main North-South conflict which has claimed millions of lives over the past four decades. Under the coalition agreement, former rebel leader John Garang has become the new Vice President of the Sudan. There will be a six-year interim period in which the southern rebels will maintain troops to ensure compliance by Khartoum. At the end of the six years, the southerners can then vote on succession. This is an excerpt from the New York Times (registration required): NAIROBI, Kenya, July 9 – Sudan elevated a former rebel…
According to the New York Times (registration required), Syrian Kurds, many of them denied not only equal protection of the law but also citizenship, are increasing pressure on Damascus for change. With democratic revolutions under way to the west in Lebanon and to the east in Iraq, the former being explicitly anti-Syrian and the latter being anti-Baathist, the Baathist regime of Bashar Assad in Damascus is feeling the heat. This is an excerpt from the NYT report (“Kurds, Emboldened by Lebanon, Rise Up in Tense Syria”): …But as Syria endures heavy international and domestic pressure to change, storm clouds are…
Those interested in development issues in the Arab world might find it worth while to read a back and forth discussion of the future of the Arab world taking place between my blog and that of an Egyptian architect-turned-political activist, Karim Elsahy (pronounced es-sahhi, with a hard “h”). Elsahy’s blog, One Arab World, contains a few posts explaining his political project followed by a series of comments by various (mostly) Arab bloggers (but in English). My post deals with two different things: the first part is a response to a request for comment by Elsahy regarding a statement in President…
I was just about to post a translation of an article from Al-Hayat on the Libyan opposition’s conference which closed yesterday, and then I noticed that one of my collaborateurs beat me to it with this article a few hours ago (linking to ABC’s website). But the Al-Hayat article takes a different angle on the issue from the ABC article, and so may be worth reading as well. I’ll just provide the link: Window on the Arab World, and More! I will note that whereas our own A.M. Mora y Leon makes the point that the Libyan opposition seemed to…
I have traditionally been a supporter of the foreign aid that the United States gives to the Egyptian government, mainly on the premise that the soft authoritarianism of Hosni Mubarak’s government was the only alternative to an Islamist takeover which could throw the region into war. Following the 9/11 attacks and further reflection, however, I have come to the view that Mubarak’s stifling government and our close relationship with it breeds anti-Americanism, and furthermore acts as an incubator for militant Islamism because all non-Islamist civil society is snuffed out. On Tuesday, Congress passed its $20 billion foreign aid budget which…