Blogging the democratic revolution
The mainstream media largely missed it, but here at Publius Pundit we recently noted a flickering of Ukraine-style protests for democratic reforms in Bahrain. But there is danger as well, for part of the opposition is aligned with Iran (the Sunni-ruled country is majority Shia, but of course only a faction among the Shia population identifies with Iran). This is according to Geostrategy-Direct (subscription required): ÄApril 5Å Bahrain has prepared for a major crackdown on the Shi’ite opposition aligned with Iran. The crackdown is being closely monitored by the United States, whose naval Fifth Fleet is based in Manama. The…
The death of Pope John Paul II, although expected, has nevertheless been strongly felt around the world. One of his main themes was the promotion of democracy and freedom. What I would like to do here is to use this opportunity to look at two other issues close to John Paul’s heart – the future of Arab Christianity in the Arab world, especially those groups – the Uniates and the Maronites – aligned with Rome, and the future of Muslim-Christian relations. Christian Arabs will play a role of course in the democratization of the Arab world, assuming their communities survive…
Two articles published recently in the London-based Arabic daily al-Hayat suggest that Arab governments may be making a decisive change in their dealings toward the Palestinians. One was a March 30 article, The Amir of Qatar: ‘The Palestinians Have Proven that Reform and Peace Can Go Together’. The article, citing remarks of the Amir of Qatar Shaikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani at the “Fifth Doha Conference for Democracy and Free Trade,” wrote: ‘The search for reform and the search for peace in the region can go together without conflict or contradiction,’ remarking that ‘our Palestinian brothers have proven this by…
My post yesterday questioning whether opening elections to the Muslim Brotherhood might bring about disaster got more responses than any other post I have done on Publius Pundit. I felt that some of the issues raised by the comments had sufficient significance for democratic development theory to justify a full post response. (To read my initial post and the comments, see Egypt: Democracy Enthusiasts’ Toughest Test?) There were some responses with which I agree or at least find reasonable: (1) It is almost certainly true that were the Muslim Brotherhood to come to power in Egypt, this would lead to…
Those in the United States and elsewhere who are pushing hard for the spread of democracy around the globe (including Publius Pundit) may soon get their toughest test yet. Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak recently made a much publicized announcement that the constitution was to be amended to allow for genuinely competitive presidential elections. Today the Muslim Brotherhood, which is banned in Egypt but is nevertheless highly organized and motivated, held protests demanding that they be given a chance to run in an open election. Dozens were arrested, and judging from what I saw on Al-Jazeera today the demonstrations were pretty…
I’m still not finished with my residence move, and still have books all over the floor, but I felt the need to start blogging again after a six-day hiatus. So, since I recently posted an entry pouring water on the Palestinians’ united front, as it included a release of terrorists by Israel in exchange for just ten months of peace, I felt it appropriate to note that the Arab League made a more realistic offer at its yearly conference this week (see my last post on this issue, Oslo II? The Palestinians’ United Front, and the Fading Hopes for Peace).…
Last Monday Publius posted an entry on Iraqi protests against Jordan following reports that Jordanians celebrated a terrorist attack which killed 125 Iraqis because the bomber was Jordanian, and then a Jordanian newspaper spun the event positively (see Bad Journalism Causes Iraqi Outrage). From what I saw on Al-Jazeera about an hour ago, a week later the Iraqis’ fury seems not to have tempered much. The footage showed crowds still protesting at the ravaged Jordanian embassy. The Al-Jazeera report noted that Jordan has now pulled all of its embassy personnel from Iraq for security reasons, and Iraq has also recalled…
Earlier today the Palestinian Authority and several Palestinian terrorist organizations, including, most prominently, Hamas, wrapped up their meeting in Cairo with an agreement to extend their ceasefire with Israel until the end of this year, assuming Israel meets a variety of conditions. As I watched the press conference and statements by leaders of the various organizations on Al-Jazeera earlier, the most oft-repeated demands were “and end to Israeli aggression” and “freeing of the prisoners” – the latter a reference to terrorists which currently inhabit Israeli prisons. The Islamist daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi phrased the united position this way: ÄQuoting Amr Sulayman,…
Given that I recently posted an entry, Jordan’s Civil Society Crackdown, which was somewhat critical of Jordan, I thought that it would be appropriate to link to a transcript of an interview with Jordan’s King Abdullah from Middle East Quarterly, posted on Regime Change Iran, since it shows his strategic insight. He talks about a variety of subjects in the interview, including how to combat militant Islam, and I can assure you that Abdullah is not one of those Arab leaders who says one thing in English and another in Arabic. He also discusses at length the threat that Iran…
The Jordanian government has been for years one of the more open of Arab states, with its monarchs – first the long-ruling King Hussein and now his son King Abdullah – ruling with a relatively light hand (I spent 1997 living in Jordan). Yet as democracy movements gain strength in other parts of the Arab world, Jordan seems to be moving toward a crackdown on professional associations. This is how the London-based Al-Hayat describes the new law in its March 5 article, “Jordan: The issue of freedom and human rights increases the attention of Washington and its demands”: It appears…
Three decades after the late President Anwar Sadat announced the infitah, or economic opening, of Egypt, has the Gift of the Nile finally fulfilled predictions in becoming an economic Tiger on the Nile? A recent article in the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that Egypt’s stock market has risen 32% this year, the fastest rate among significant emerging markets, and this after gains of 81% and 119% over the past two years. Some of the credit must go to Prime Minister Ahmad Nazif, whose team has cut corporate taxes, income taxes (by half) and custom tariffs (by almost half).…
In my recent post, Has Qadafi Caught the Spirit?, I wrote that there were mixed signs that Libya’s ruler, Mu’amar Qadafi, was committed to ending his country’s economic and political isolation. In today’s Al-Quds Al-Arabi, it was reported that Libya plans to cut 46,000 government jobs over the next year. As the article notes, Libya has 862,000 government workers, a huge figure when you consider that the country’s entire population is only a little over five million. Libya’s Prime Minister, Muhammad Mu’atuq, stated that some of the positions were to be eliminated through privatization, pushing them into “other productive work.”…
With the anti-Syrian protests underway in Lebanon right now grabbing the headlines, a reader asked for some background on the situation and an explanation of the various factions involved. The purpose of this post is to provide that background. THE OTTOMAN ERA (1517-1918) It might be said that modern Lebanon has its roots in the centuries of Ottoman rule. Historically, what is now Syria, Lebanon, Palestine and Jordan were all part of what might be called “Greater Syria.” (Although Palestine, and Jerusalem especially, was often occupied by whatever power dominated Egypt.) The coastal cities of Syria had a history of…
Iraq, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Lebanon – each in its own way has taken steps lately, some large, some small, toward joining the free world. But now Libya? Today’s Al-Hayat reports that Libya’s ruler, Mu’amar Qadafi, seems to have charted a new path in some ways, and reframed old predilictions on other issues. Coming off Libya’s renunciation of nuclear weapons and semi-normalization with the U.S. and Britain, this is potentially encouraging. The article, Qadafi Declares Reforms and Ends Hostility Between ‘African Libya’ and Israel, made the following points: The main point which was new was that normalization with Israel seems…
A revealing interview was published Friday (Feb. 25) in the Islamist daily Al-Quds Al-Arabi with Khaled Mashal, the head of Hamas’ political wing. The article was headlined: “Mashal: Pressures on Syria will have a negative effect on Hamas.” Aside from suggesting that the Syria-Hamas relationship is much closer than Syria claims, Mashal describes the truce with Israel as a purely temporary affair. He also suggests that the Bush administration has been secretly sending conciliatory messages to Hamas, a point which I hope is not true, and if true would seem to violate the Bush Doctrine. I have translated it below,…
Former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri has been assassinated by a suicide bomber. A Shia terrorist group calling itself “Victory and Jihad” has taken credit, and the Lebanese opposition is blaming Syria, of whom Hariri was a critic. I was just watching a news report on Al-Jazeera covering this, and it is looking like Lebanon, once known as the “Switzerland of the Middle East,” may soon become the Ukraine of the Middle East. The crowds gathering in the streets and the political opposition’s press conference certainly reminded me of recent events in that country. Syria has long maintained control over…
This post is a supplement to my last post on the municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, intended to provide a summary overview of the situation in that country. First I suggest that you read Daniel Drezner’s article on the Saudi elections. It covers most of the territory, but make sure you read the comments, as a couple of them (one by myself) point out inadequacies. Second, if you have not already, read my post below, An Islamist Perspective on Saudi Elections. Drezner’s article mainly deals with the moderate reformists and the politically dominant Saudi-Wahhabi bloc, but my post deals with…
Below is a translation from the pro-Islamist London-based newspaper, Al-Quds Al-Arabi, on the municipal elections in Saudi Arabia. I was thinking about translating some articles from Saudi papers and their reports on the political success of the process, but what I read sounded too much like something from Pravda on the economic rejuvenation of the Ukraine in the 1920s. I have a few comments below. Keep in mind that the interviewee is considered an ally of Osama bin Laden; see links at bottom in this regard (and keep in mind that the writing style was clumsy in the original, the…
I recently watched a news broadcast on Al-Jazeera of the Sudanese parliament’s unanimous ratification of the peace agreement between the government and the Sudan’s Peoples’ Liberation Army (SPLA), headed by John Garang. This is certainly good news. Millions have died in this on-again, off-again conflict over the past four decades, and perhaps it really is coming to an end. (See also my previous post on the Sudan, Peace in the Sudan? Does the Arab World Care?) At the same time, a representative of the government, speaking in parliament, launched a scathing attack on the United Nations and on the United…