Blogging the democratic revolution
Last week I noted a leaked memo from the Kremlin discussing its fear of the collapse of the republic of Dagestan, located in the North Caucasus. In essense, their ultra repressive tactics against separatist Chechnya has led to an endless cycle of repression, which breeds extremism, which earns an even more repressive repsonse from Moscow. This extremism against the Russian state is being exported throughout the entire North Caucasus. Essentially, what once were separatist rebels are transformd into terrorists working alongside Islamic militants. Putin is now up against an entire region of his country that wants to break away violently.…
The OSCE declared these elections partially free, noting substantial progress in this election compared to previous ones. Normally I wouldn’t be so critical of those filing complaints about irregularities, but RFE/RL makes a solid point against the people doing it in this case. Albania’s Central Election Commission agreed on 19 July to repeat the 3 July ballot in at least one district, but challenges by rival politicians continue to hold up the release of final election results, Reuters reported (see “RFE/RL Newsline,” 1, 7, and 15 July 2005). A commission spokesman said that “the commission agreed in principle to ÄrepeatÅ…
Talk about straightforward. Earlier in the week, Georgian President Saakashvili lashed out at Belarus President Lukashenko for having “no understanding of democracy.” During a visit to Italy, he has made a direct comment, in line with international actions being taken, saying that Belarus will be next to experience a velvet revolution. Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili expressed confidence that Belarus is to become the next country where the revolution against authoritarian government is to burst. This idea was expressed during his visit to Italy in the interview to the local TV channel RAINEWS 24. In his interview which is to be…
The Russian youth group “Nashi,” created not all that long ago, has been pledged to by the Kremlin to be the heirs of the government. They are among the most energetic of Putin supporters, often reported to have resorted to violence when dealing with those of opposing views. A Kremlin spin doctor has promised to ???????hand over the country??????? to the activists of the recently established Nashi movement, the Gazeta daily wrote Monday. Vladislav Surkov made the statement as he addressed a conference held by Nashi on the picturesque banks of Lake Seliger The event was closed to the press…
Presidential elections are due in Belarus come September 2006, which may see a popular velvet revolution as a result. In 2004, Lukashenko falsified a referendum to give himself the ability to run for president as many times as he wants, effectively making him president for life since all elections are rigged. The following is a clear example of how a regime systematically squashes all political opposition to make such things possible. In this case, how Lukashenko has liquidated political parties across the country for various reasons. The Mogilevskiye vedomosti, which was founded by Mahilou Regional Executive Committee, published on 12…
I seem to have a fetish with separatist conflicts this week, but it’s not coincidence that plans for peaceful settlement are popping up all around the same time. This is because the GUAM alliance countries are working together to reunite their respective countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union left a little fragmented. Today, Moldova is making progress with the plan outlined by President Yushchenko of Ukraine (outlined here, read this first). It seems that the leader of Transdniester, despite political grandstanding by parliamentarians on both sides, has showed interested in moving forward with the plan. Ukrainian President Viktor…
Eurasianet reports on a leaked memo (perhaps deliberately) that shows Russian policy makers worried about the situation in Dagestan, which has seen increased separatis sentiments and terrorist attacks of late. The increasing rebel attacks in Dagestan (see EDM, July 7) have finally forced Russian authorities to focus on the problems of the republic. Officials in Moscow now realize that the region needs special handling. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov recently conceded, “Of course we are worried about explosions in Dagestan, and this difficult problem should be resolved by civil methods as well as by force (yufo.ru, July 6). On July…
Usually this wouldn’t be a story to me as I’m sure this happens at least a hundred million times a day somewhere in the world. But I’ve never heard of someone calling our president the equivalent of Hitler for supporting democracy movements. About 20 youths have gathered in front of the U.S. Consulate in St. Petersburg shouting: ???????We have defeated Hitler, and will defeat Bush???????, Interfax reported. The protestors, members of a local branch of the United Socialistic Party of Russia and Congress of Socialist Youth, accuse the U.S. of supporting the so-called velvet revolutions in former Soviet republics. They…
Besides democratization, and all that it implies, the government of Georgia must deal with separatist governments in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. While the former will likely prove much more difficult in general, Saakashvili’s governmet has just released a comprehensive plan to reconcile with South Ossetia. Most striking about the plan is how it deals two-fold with at once the Ossetian people outside the autonomous region and again with the government there. As the article notes, “Georgia becomes the first country in the region to offer repatriation, restitution, and compensation to refugees in the context of conflict-settlement efforts.” Every effort is…
I just wanted to point this out because I laughed out loud when I read it: President Alyaksandr Lukashenka said in an interview with Russia’s TV-Tsentr on 11 July that he has no friends, Belapan reported. Responding to a remark by the interviewer that “the presidency is a colossal solitude,” Lukashenka said this description touches a “sensitive spot” in him. “This is the hardest thing, and…it tends to grow,” Lukashenka went on. “It is getting bigger and bigger over the years. Vladimir Vladimirovich ÄPutinÅ, my good colleague and friend, has friends. I cannot boast the same thing.” Lukashenka added that…
… By Russia! Go figure. THE international organisation that criticised the conduct of elections in Georgia before the Velvet Revolution and in Ukraine before the Orange Revolution has been accused by the Russian Government of double standards. Criticism of electoral abuses in former Soviet states by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) could ???????sometimes trigger unrest and destroy stability and is used by the extremist forces in those countries???????, said Alexey Borodavkin, Russia????????s Ambassador to the organisation. He said that the OSCE needed to introduce reforms to its procedure for election monitoring and accused the organisation of…
Tammy Lynch from the Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology and Policy emailed me an article of hers entitled Time for Yushchenko to Step Up. It’s a very detailed, well-researched article that is incredibly relevant because of its critical look at the parliamentary battle over WTO legislation. Last week, Ukraine????s parliament (Verkhovna Rada) rejected a number of measures that would have brought the country????s trade regulations in line with international norms and that would have moved the country closer to meeting the requirements for World Trade Organization (WTO) entry. The bills included two ????make or break???? issues: the United…
The OSCE has released it’s preliminary report on its election observation mission in Albania. The EU Observer pointedly notes the positive developments made in this round while addressing its shortcomings. EUOBSERVER / BRUSSELS – Sunday’s (3 June) elections in Albania have only partially complied with the international standards for democratic elections, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) – the body in charge of observing the process – announced on Monday (4 July) in its preliminary report. “While these were overall competitive elections and media generally provided voters with a diversity of electoral information, major political parties have…
I think most of the headlines calling this a “key test” are pretty correct in that description. Albania is another transition democracy in the volatile Balkans, and transition means baby steps. This means that it will be years before investment bears fruit and real liberalism takes solid root. TIRANA (AFX) – Albanians began voting on Sunday in legislative elections seen as crucial to their country’s ambition to join the EU. A free and fair vote is crucial for Albania as it hopes to sign a stabilization and association accord with the EU this year and join the European bloc in…
President Hu of China is in Russia for a four-day visit with Putin where the two will agree on an array of political and economic ties for their roles in the region and in the world. Chinese President Hu Jintao Friday called for greater efforts to strengthen the strategic partnership and economic and trade ties between China and Russia. Hu Jintao met Russia????????s top lawmakers, Boris Gryzlov, and Sergei Mironov. Later he and Putin signed a joint declaration on the new world order in the 21st century. In a meeting with Boris Gryzlov, chairman of Russia????????s State Duma, Hu said…
Yesterday, I posted “More squawking of a Russia-Belarus union,” though significantly most of that squawking comes from Belarus’ side. Here’s a piece in RFE/RL that adds further to yesterday’s post. KREMLIN ADVISERS SCOLD BELARUS FOR HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD… In an open letter to Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka published on 23 June at sovetpanfilova.ru, the Council for Promoting Civil Society and Human Rights (SSRIGOPCh) under Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed its concern about “the unfavorable situation with civic rights and freedoms” in Belarus. The council, which is an advisory body whose head is appointed by Putin, said that Belarus has virtually…
Remember back several months ago when Putin declared that regional governors would be appointed rather than elected. It didn’t really matter in the first place, because those elected were already vetted for approval by Moscow. The reason Putin gave is that he would be able to install more popular and competent leaders should they be needed. But elections hold both a practical and symbolic importance, especially when the corrupt and incompetent leadership is not being replaced. Russia????????s abolition of regional elections ????????- a reflex reaction to the Beslan tragedy ????????- has backfired. Instead of bringing order to the North Caucasus,…
Viktor Yushchenko seems at time to be more interested in completing assession to NATO than to tackling the problems of his fragile presidency. This is interesting seeing that NATO officials and member heads of state have not exactly thrown their arms around the Ukrainian president as he moves from constituent to constituent trying to rustle up an invitation. One can see that Yuschenko’s tactic of assuming membership and imploring the alliance to hurry up already with the papers is starting to grate on the (admittedly) thin patience of the slow-witted NATO administration. Curious, then, that headlines trumpet a breakthrough in…
There has been some talk about this for awhile now, though it usually amounts to nothing. Lukashenko is basically looking for a way to preserve his power and status through oppression. With so much pressure from the west, he must be counting down the days until the end of his reign. Because of that, he has to look eastward; specifically, Russia (though greater ties with countries such as Zimbabwe are revealing as well). This has largely resulted in military cooperation and aid, though talks over a joint currency and even possible union are being talked about, albeit haltingly without much…
The Moldovan parliement recently signed a Ukraine-drafted accord on how to move forward with the Transdniestria separatist conflict. HISINAU, June 10 (Itar-Tass) – Moldovan parliament has approved a plan of settlement of the conflict with the breakaway Dniester region proposed by Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko. Parliament also has adopted an address to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) on principles and conditions of demilitarisation and democratisation of the Dniester region. Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin and the government attended the parliamentary sitting. The declaration approving the Ukraine-proposed settlement plan said it ???????lacked some moments, including the withdrawal of…
After years of stalled talks between the two, Georgia and Russia have signed a joint declaration pledging toward a specific plan for the pullout of Russian military bases from Georgia. The Russian and Georgian Foreign Ministries published a joint declaration, which outlines the process of withdrawal of Russian military bases from Georgia. It also deals border delimitation and conflict resolution issues. The Joint Declaration was signed by the to Ministers ???????? Sergey Lavrov and Salome Zourabichvili, after talks in Moscow on May 30. According to the declaration Russia committed itself to putting its two military bases, in Batumi and Akhalkalaki,…
Of course, that’s rather predictable given that Lukashenko owns the parliament. Due to the spread of “velvet revolutions” in his near vicinity, and the upfront declarations of his neighbors, the EU, and the United States to promote democracy in Belarus, Lukashenko has passed a state security law which will allow the secret police practically absolute access to people and their property without any approval. New law “On Organs of State Security” has taken effect. This is the information provided by Radio Liberty. The human rights activists and the opposition have already referred to this law as “another stepping stone” to…
Georgia experienced the Rose Revolution in 2003, serving as an antecedent for Ukraine’s Orange Revolution (as well as democratic revolutions elsewhere). Georgia has since made nice progress, with U.S. President Bush visiting two weeks ago. Now a commission of the Georgian government, led by President Saakashvili, has prepared a draft document outlining the nation’s national security requirements and fundamental national values. Civil Georgia has the story: The draft concept of the national security sets sovereignty, security, peace, democracy, rule of law, human rights and welfare as Georgia????????s fundamental national values. These values are a ???????vital necessity for the existence and…
The Council of Europe ended its third summit since 1949 in Warsaw on Tuesday with everybody calling for democracy in Belarus, which is the only European country that cannot attend the event. Out of all the countries, however, Poland really stood out with its calls. WARSAW – Calls for democracy in Belarus and agreement on the Warsaw Declaration charting the course for the Council of Europe over the coming years closed debate at the council’s summit in Warsaw on Tuesday. Poland’s president Aleksander Kwasniewski slammed human rights violations in Belarus and called for the democratisation of Poland’s eastern neighbour, dubbed…
I’ve been reading through this piece on RIA Novosti, the Russian news and information agency. To the effect of KGB intelligence gathering, they’ve made a large collection of articles written in the former Soviet republics before and after the V-E Day celebrations. In particular, what they’ve written against Russia. Until you get to the Central Asia dictatorships, it looks pretty harsh.