Blogging the democratic revolution
It was Mao Zedong who first said that, as long as a population remains neutral to an insurgency, the ultimate war against a government could be won. He layed out a three-pronged strategy for victory, which consisted of the preparation of an underground infrastructure, limited guerilla warfare, and eventually conventional warfare that would lead to victory. The most important of these stages is the first two, in which the insurgency lays the groundwork for mainstream support among the population so that it can begin engaging in operations. Writing in 1988 for the Airpower Research Institute, Colonel Dennis M. Drew evaluates…
The polls have closed in Iraq. Voter turnout was incredibly large, expected to be even higher than in January and October. All groups participated. For those of you wanting to know what’s going on, here’s a roundup where you can get all the information your heart desires. Pajamas Media has amazing on the ground reporting from several Iraqi cities. Gateway Pundit has a huge roundup. Iraq the Model is updating furiously on the ground. Bill Roggio is blogging from Barwana. Iraq Pundit relates his own experiences. Hammorabi is a blog worth scrolling all the way down. More as I see…
News reports are indicating that all sects of Iraqi society are turning out to vote, including the Sunnis who have made due to come out in full force. Turnout is expected to be larger than in the previous two elections. What we will witness today is not only another historic event as we saw in January and October, but a complete redefinition of the Iraqi political landscape as we know it. The January, 2005, assembly elections led to the utter domination of the parliament by just three parties, including the United Iraqi Alliance, the Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan, and…
Today’s parliamentary election in Iraq will be the first that includes all major and minor groups turning out in full, making it the first truly representative government the country has had — ever. The important virtue of this is that of legitimacy, the only quality that will allow the government to operate as it needs to without major resistence. It would certainly begin the spelling of the end of the insurgency since their grievances would be able to be aired in official negotiation with other political parties. I am especially concerned about domination of the Interior Ministry by the Shiite…
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Bolivians elections are advancing rapidly as Jorge Quiroga and Samuel Dorian Medina try to forge an alliance that can take on far-left Evo Morales who is currently in the lead but is by no means a certain winner. Morales is threatening mayhem if he does not win. His lead is extending but Bolivian voters have a history of moving against the frontrunner at the very end of a campaign so anything can happen. A quick roundup: Miguel Centellas of CIAO! has the latest poll showing Evo Morales in a decisive lead with 34% of the vote. Miguel Buitrago of MABB…
Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez buys loyalty from supporters through handouts from Venezuela????s vast oil bounty. So while accidents are at a record high and investment is at a record low at Venezuela????s state oil company, something that high oil earnings should alleviate if PDVSA were a normal company, it has instead become Hugo Chavez????s personal ATM for social spending programs. Gustavo Coronel has a fine essay on the phenomenon here.
The second Mehlis Report on the assassination of Rafik Hariri by Syrian and Lebanese security authorities has been released. You can download the PDF here. I know my headline makes it sound like a bad sequel, but this one actually goes beyond its predecessor, delving into a new depth of intrigue and plot twists. Yet the ending still remains the same. The Syrian regime and its allies in the Lebanese security apparatus have been further implicated in the slaying and have been further shown to be uncooperative with the investigation. This despite the unanimous demands of the UN Security Council.…
I must admit that I was getting more excited about this election than I was about the U.S. presidential ones. I’m not so sure why, because I realize that no matter who wins the same policies of free-markets and good governance will continue. There will now be a runoff on January 15, which means I’ll still be in the country to provide you all with on-the-ground liveblogging goodness. The campaign will now be between Socialist Michele Bachelet and centre-right Sebastian Pinera, who have both promised to continue the fantastic economic policies of President Lagos while vowing to cut unemployment and…
Today, the general manager of the anti-Syrian, pro-independence newspaper An Nahar and a legislator from Beirut was assassinated by a car bomb. Almost all of Gebran Tueni’s editorials that have been published in the English-language version of the paper, Naharnet, have been against Syria. The last one published called the mass graves discovered by Lebanese authorities a crime against humanity. It is so strange to think that someone who I read in the Lebanese press — and not just any Lebanese press, this is by far one of the most influential papers — can just be wiped out like that,…
Jim Hoft has a couple of roundups, here, here, and here in chronological order. Pajamas Media also takes a look at what others blogs are saying.
As growing numbers of elections approach and get down to the wire, Boz has all the latest poll numbers from around the region, giving one indication as to how they may go. Read it here.
Hundreds of students marched in the streets against corruption, with a cardboard model of a ????bagman????in a cage as well a model pig, both of which reprented corruption. The story in El Universo is here.
A brief timeline of events: – Iranian President says that Israel should be “wiped off the map.” – The United Nations condemns his remarks. – Iranian President calls for Israel to be moved to Europe and denies the Holocaust. – The United Nations is shocked — shocked! — by the remarks. Oops, I seem to have missed an event right there in the middle, right after the whole “Israel should be wiped off the map” thing. A week ago, the United Nations held a “Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People” at the UN headquarters in New York City, which…
From this: To this: See the BBC report here. A Croatian general charged with war crimes has been arrested in Spain, the UN’s chief war crimes prosecutor says. Ante Gotovina – the third most-wanted suspect from the Balkan wars – was held in the Canary Islands on Wednesday. Gen Gotovina, 50, is accused over the death of about 150 Serb civilians during a Croatian offensive in 1995. Make sure to read the post over at Balkan Baby, who hilariously sums up the mood. The third most wanted man in the Balkans (after Karadzic and Mladic) and the main reason Croatia…
Check this out. It’s the launch of a new Middle East human rights initiative to bring together activists from the Middle East and America. They’re doing an essay contest for people under the age of 26 to share ideas about what to do. Check out the website here. It’s being done by a good group of people and I recommend doing so. Click “read more” to see the press release.
Eurasia Daily Monitor has an in-depth article detailing pressure by Georgian President Saakashivili’s Rose Revolution government on the judiciary in the country. Widespread allegations about restrictions on judicial independence since the Rose Revolution have received new credibility following sensational confessions by four members of the Georgian Supreme Court. Tamaz Iliashvili, Merab Turava, David Sulakvelidze, and Nino Gvenetadze have publicly accused Kote Kublashvili, chairman of the Supreme Court, and Valery Tsertsvadze, secretary of the Supreme Council of Justice, of exerting political pressure on judges and forcing them to make decisions favoring the government on specific cases. Currently, the Judicial Discipline Commission…
Leaders of the ASEAN regional grouping, growing tired of the Burmese military junta’s unwillingness to fulfill its obligations, has called on the country to democratize and release dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Kuala Lumpur, Dec. 9 (AP): Southeast Asian nations on Friday demanded that military-ruled Myanmar expedite democratic reforms and free Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, in the strongest display yet of their growing frustration with the junta. Myanmar has pledged to allow democracy under strong pressure from its neighbors as well as the U.S. and other Western powers, but has so far failed to deliver. Foreign Ministers…
The North Ossetian parliamentary investigation into the Beslan massacre is out, and guess who caused the fabled first explosion? Last week, the results of a North Ossetian parliamentary investigation into the terrorist attack in Beslan were made public. The report went largely unnoticed. The pro-government media shied away from a number of awkward conclusions, while the opposition was dissatisfied with the level of invective directed at the government of President Vladimir Putin. There is no question that the parliamentary commission, headed by Stanislav Kesayev, deputy speaker of the North Ossetian legislature, came under enormous pressure. A good deal was also…
It’s a hectic last week of school. Lots of essays that I have to B.S. for tomorrow.
Egypt has now completed the first round of the the third stage of its three-stage parliamentary elections, and is now completing the run-offs for the third stage. Egypt’s electoral system is complex and sometimes confusing to outsiders because the same election involves three stages, each for a specified geographic region of the country, followed by run-off votes in districts where no candidate received a majority. So there are six total election days. Following the first two stages, with roughly 300 out of 454 seats determined, the ruling National Democratic Party had 195 seats, the banned Muslim Brotherhood, running candidates as…
Blogging live from Caracas, Venezuela today, I found myself stuck in an hours long taxi line at a mall in Chacao, an upper middle class neighborhood in Caracas. Amid the prettily decorated mall trees, people were carrying red and green cello-wrapped baskets of Bimbo-brand Panettone and bottles of Concho y Toro wine, something nice for the holidays but certainly not rarified upper class delights. The line moved unbelievably slow and darkness fell after a couple hours. I started asking people around whether they voted, what they thought of their president and what they thought the future held. I had expected…
Burmese officials loyal to the regime are all meeting (read: getting drunk) at a convention that is supposed to put the country on the path to democracy. At least, that’s what the government spokesman are saying. Mad about not being invited to the party are every concerned democratic country on earth, the overwhelmingly popular opposition, and anyone else who might have an inkling of desire to reform the country. I know I didn’t get my invitation! Myanmar’s ruling generals on Monday opened a round of talks on drafting a new Constitution and steering the isolated country toward what the junta…
Russia, for some reason allowed to be a part of the OSCE, is fighting tooth and nail to dismember the best election monitoring team in the world. Why? Because behind Russia’s supposed concerns that the monitors are politically motivated, it is actually worried that the unveiling of more phony elections in its backyard will spark further pro-West revolutions. Instead, it would prefer that the OSCE monitoring team be complacent and say that elections are free and fair when they really aren’t. Charming, no? Well, we can’t have that. Ljubljana, 5 December 2005 (RFE/RL) — U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns…
Here’s the untold story of the tiny country of Tonga, with a population of 100,000 spread over 171 islands and a monarchy that refuses to reform itself. The past several months have been tense. Thousands of people are organizing and protesting for democracy. The government is coming under intense pressure, but the church is serving to prop up the regime. Oppositions MPs demanded the king begin reforming the government by Dec. 5, which would include popular election of all parliamentary deputies, choosing of the prime minister by the parliament, and the reduction of the king to a ceremonial role. When…