Blogging the democratic revolution
Polls can be unreliable but this news is truly radical: Goldman Sachs, in its daily emerging market report, says: Grupo GEA Reports Calder????n Ahead of AMLO in the polls According to GEA (a consulting firm), in a poll conducted between March 18 and 21, Felipe Calder????n (PAN) overtook AMLO in the opinion polls. According to GEA, Calderon rose to first with 36% from 32% (in February); while AMLO fell to second to 34% from 41% in February. Madrazo remained in third with 28% (up 1%). According to El Universal, AMLO said that these polls showing him down reflect the desperation…
Thailand’s got snap elections today for prime minister, a manuever by the prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, to take advantage of a disorganized opposition that wants him out but doesn’t have much of an alternative to present. Vast protests have been taking place in Bangkok over the past six weeks. Prominent leaders of the 1992 democracy-now revolts have been seen at them, and the King has voiced a veiled displeasure with both sides in this. Today’s the snap poll, which amounts to a referendum on Thaksin. Most of the opposition saw through the maneuver and word now is that they aren’t…
Jorge Rodriguez, the chairman of Venezuela’s supposedly independent election agency, the CNE, has said he’d step down. Rodriguez is one hell of a shameless chavista, the man who brought us Venezuela’s empty elections I witnessed on Dec. 4 last year. He reduced confidence to such a low that virtually no one wanted to vote in them anymore. He added insult to injury by continuously repeating that Venezuela’s elections are all free and fair. In short, the guy is even more fraudulent than the elections he certifies. But they certainly do reflect on his leadership. Today, the net result of his…
Like it or not, THE story for the coming week is immigration in the U.S. This weekend, vast crowds of hundreds of thousands of Latinos will take to the streets in support of immigration rights for illegal immigrants. Given the negative sentiment in other, non-Latino parts of the U.S. (thank you Hugo Chavez, clown and strongman, for your contribution to gringo stereotypes), the demonstrations are bound to be controversial. Boz has some interesting poll numbers in a good roundup, with all the latest on that, as well as Mexico’s election, and polls from Peru, Ecuador, Brazil and other places around…
Somewhat I feel vindicated. In August last year I posted an extremely thorough piece of investigative blogging regarding Smartmatic; the e-voting machines vendor, which owns Sequoia, that has proven so useful to Venezuela’s wannabe dictator Hugo Chavez. The recent e-voting fiasco in Chicago comes to prove the hypothesis that one thing is to observe how rigged electoral processes in far away lands, which do not affect Americans, are overlooked, or simply ignored, by the mainstream media and an entirely different matter when similar problems corrode the transparency and outcome of elections in US soil. As readers of this site know,…
An independent board representing Peru’s National Human Rights Coordinator has substantiated claims that Ollanta Humala, the far-left nut who’s a frontrunner in Peru’s April 9 presidential race, did torture peasants in the mountains as an army officer in the 1990s. Peru’s peasants have been making this claim for months and Humala has denied it. Now, his denials show that not only is he a brutal leftist thug, he’s also a liar. The story is here.
Miguel Octavio has a short item on the busy, busy, busy Gonzalez family, all 1,921 of whom were born on the same day 32 years ago in Maracaibo, all 1,921 of whom registered to vote on the same day, and most all 1,921 of whom registered at the same center. My, my, my how long that line was! Check out Miguel’s heartwarming birthday wishes to the busy, busy Gonzalezes here. It’s since been picked up by The San Jose Mercury News and The Miami Herald, via Knight-Ridder. Knight-Ridder reports: Venezuela’s records suggest vote fraud MARACAIBO, Venezuela – It was the…
Alek Boyd at VCrisis recently exposed the bizarre structure of one North American Opinion Research organization, a Florida-based group that shares office space with something called ‘Petrotulsa‘ and purports to take polls in Venezuela which repeatedly claim that Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez is “popular.” It’s nothing but a front for false propaganda extolling Chavez, which can come in quite convenient as a backstop at ballot-box stuffing time, as Venezuelans well know. Alek’s expose has struck a nerve with the chavistas, who realize that their scam is up. Never again will they be able to release a false poll to news…
Boz has the past week’s poll numbers (sorry I didn’t see it earlier!) showing the state of the presidential Horse Races in Mexico and Peru, along with an item showing that Ecuador’s reverting true to its political form. The whole thing, with these and other polls, is here.
Dying to know the deal on Peru (hint: to watch a Marxist sink?) Want to see what kind of garbage Telesur is up to? (hint: maybe this explains why Uruguay asked to have its name taken off the masthead?) Want to see something cool out Mexico? (hint: the good guys are continuing to rise). Boz at Bloggings by Boz has the week’s poll numbers from around the hemisphere in this election year right here. Meanwhile, a note: One of the polls cited by Boz, on Venezuela, has been identified with documents as a government-controlled polling entity by Alek Boyd. Check…
Francisco Toro has a fascinating essay about the findings of pollster Alfredo Keller. As Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez prepares to seek reelection in December, the composition of those likely to vote for the supremodomo becomes important. Francisco reports that 52% of the electorate plans to vote for Chavez. Of this 52%: -33% do so only because they want Chavez’s handouts. -14% do so because they depend on government jobs. -6% do so because they are hardcore ideological leftists, the exact same number of people who voted for hardcore leftists before Chavez was elected. There is probably some overlap, e.g., some people…
The burning-tire news photos from Haiti’s presidential election look horrific. After seven delays, elections finally went through in UN-occupied Haiti, and the result is a disaster. The election was held on Feb 7, and the vote counting went through the weekend. The organizers said there would be a delay in the expected results, but people celebrated who they thought had won anyway. The expected winner had been an agronomist named Rene Preval, who was a close associate of exiled President Aristide. Preval’s Hope party had been leading in the exit polls, but now the organizers say he got less than…
With possibly a 1,000-vote discrepancy between Oscar Arias and Otton Solis in their ultra-close and now contentious presidential election from Sunday, Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey has has found that plans are already under way to recycle the ballots into toilet paper. Somehow, for some at least, it will seem fitting. Her funny item is here. Oh, and be sure to see some of her other stuff on the more serious political state of affairs here and here. Via Global Voices, a site called Costa Rica en el presente, has what it says are unofficial presidential election results, in Spanish, and…
Boz has some really good polling numbers this week, all kinds of unusual numbers, including a delicious Peruvian one showing that Ollanta Humala, Chavez ally and leftist torturer of peasants, is dropping like a stone in Peru’s presidential polls for April. Peruvians just don’t like him. Not only that, Tony Saca is doing fine in El Salvador. You gotta see this whole thing here.
Jacqueline Mackey Paisley Passey in Costa Rica now has a tremendous gallery of photos on Costa Rica’s cliffhanger presidential election that are beautifully taken and beautifully laid out. That election has about 3100 votes’ difference now between Oscar Arias and Otton Solis, 40.5% to 40.3%, and 12% of the votes still to be counted – that’s getting really close! See Jacqueline’s pictures here.
Ollanta Humala’s presidential campaign in Peru is bedevilled by charges from peasants from remote mountain areas that he tortured them in 1980s under the nom de guerre of ‘Captain Carlos.’ What a charmer. It’s not enough that he is leftwing and pro-Hugo Chavez, a failed military coupster, and an anti-Semitic racist. He’s also tortured peasants as El Capitan Carlos. Today his own brother confirmed it. El Universal has the story here. I can’t think of any bigger kiss of death to any presidential campaign than being accused of torturing peasants. Not even a Hugo Chavez endorsement. No spin-control is going…
Jacqueline Mackey Paisley Passey has first-rate overview of the election along with lots of photos in this entry here, and a terrific news roundup full of lots of blogs I didn’t know about. Be sure to see all her new stuff here. One of the links she has, on Babalu blog (which I admit I wrote the entry for), has some marvelous discussion in the comments section from the commentors, there are some really knowledgable people who have a lot of colorful detail there. The item is here. Taylor Kirk at The Latin Americanist has some interesting thoughts about the…
Costa Rica’s election, like Honduras’ election earlier, is turning into a cliffhanger. Frontrunner Oscar Arias is ahead, but only by about 0.4 percentage point. It could turn. This referendum on free trade – for his opponent, Otton Solis, is opposed to it – is suddenly a matter for speculation. Will Arias win? Keep fingers crossed. The news story is here and there are blog links two posts below. UPDATE: Nacion, as of 12:26 p.m. Pacific time, is reporting that the difference between the top two candidates is 3,647 votes. The item (if you can get it up, there’s heavy traffic)…
Oscar Arias, a powerful, luminous, fearless advocate for free trade is winning in Costa Rica’s exit polls in what looks like a decisive victory. Reportedly taking in 45% of the vote in a three-way field, it means his victory so strong he will avoid a runoff, if these numbers hold, putting this election on a comparable level with Evo Morales’ in Bolivia. The cutoff for avoiding a runoff is 40% of the vote. What does it mean? It means that despite the naysayers, the people insisting the region is turning left, Costa Ricans in their thousands cast their votes for…
Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez has been openly meddling in Peru’s April election. He’s hurled insults at centrist Lourdes Flores, a leading candidate, and cavorted on camera with Ollanta Humala, in a message implying to Peru’s voters that a vote for Humala was a vote for Chavez’s abundant open checkbook, something Flores would never get. This led to extremely bitter relations between the two states, plus a local magazine putting Chavez and Humala on its cover depicting them as an ape and its apelet. But something happened on the way to the polls – the SAME thing that happened on the…
The first-ever participation of Hamas in the Palestinian elections on Wednesday poses significant policy challenges to the United States, Europe, Israel and the region. Hamas calls for the destruction of Israel and is designated a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the E.U. A Hamas victory could lead to the creation of the first Sunni jihadist state in the modern Middle East, paralleling the Shiite theocracy in Tehran. Hamas is a local offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, a regional extremist network that threatens Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq. While Hezbollah represents only one sect in Lebanon, Hamas threatens to overwhelm…
Excellent stuff from Boz, the Mexican and Peruvian presidential campaign polls in particular are important as far-leftists are among the contenders, the horse races are close, and elections are coming up soon. Also, check out the latest polls on existing presidents in Latin America, at the end of his post. It is all worth reading here.
There’s some great thinking and analysis out there on Chile’s election. Here are some of the best items I’ve found so far: First stop, check out Boz at Bloggings by Boz‘s Five Points on Chile, describing the implications of the election. I in particular agree with Point One, and think his Point Five is excellent, too. But go see all of them and see what you think. It’s a don’t miss here. Randy Paul at Beautiful Horizons has some interesting – and rarely noted – facts about the issues Bachelet is likely to face regarding privatization, labor, and the social…
This Sunday, Chile will undertake a great expression of democracy in its relatively new republic through its presidential elections. Gone are the days of dictators and caudillos and tinpots. Having totally renounced them and their lack of democracy, what’s left are two good candidates, one leaning left and one leaning right, heading down to the wire on Sunday’s elections. This whole election will serve as a benchmark to the rest of Latin America of what a good election should be. All countries should try to measure up to this excellent Chilean standard. Agencia EFE has a great profile of one…
Boz has all kinds of interesting and different kinds of political, social and economic polls from around the hemisphere this week, from norte to sur, check it out here.