Lebanon went to the polls for the third time today (I think they like it!) in the districts of Mt. Lebanon and Bekaa. Usually I would do a really long post and analysis, given that most news stories fail at covering the event well, but An Nahar did such a good job that it will require little further elaborating.

Lebanon’s mother-of-all election battles is on, pitting Gen. Aoun and allied Syrian loyalists against a ‘strategic pact’ of major opposition groupings comprising Walid Jumblat, Saad Hariri, Qornet Shahwan and Samir Geagea’s Lebanese Forces.

The polls opened at 7 a.m. Beirut time for 11 hours of balloting in Mount Lebanon and the Bekaa for a total of 58 seats in the third round of the May-June elections to install a Lebanese parliament that is expected to introduce a new free-from-Syria regime.

The vote is expected to determine Aoun’s political size within his own Christian community. His last move on elections eve was to go to Bkirki and seek Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Sfeir’s blessing, assuring reporters the election process would be non-violent, the Beirut media noted.

At stake are 58 seats of the new legislature, which is made up of 128 members. About 1.2 million men and women over 21 are eligible to vote. Thirty-five seats are up for grabs in Mount Lebanon and 23 in the Bekaa.

Two seats have already been won uncontested in Mount Lebanon — Druze opposition leader Walid Jumblat and his senior-most aide Marwan Hamadeh. The remaining 33 seats form the arena of the make-or-break Aoun-Jumblat showdown.

Aoun’s main ally in the Baabda-Aley district is Talal Arslan, long an unflinching ally of Syria and President Lahoud’s Syrian-propped regime who heads the Lebanese Democratic Party. Jumblat, the acknowledged standard-bearer of Lebanon’s Druze sect, is backed by Hariri’s Tayyar Al Mustaqbal, Geagea’s LF and Hizbullah.

Beirut legislator Gebran Tueni quoted Geagea as pleading from his prison at the defense ministry compound in Yarze for a massive turnout of LF rank-and-file on Sunday’s polls, asserting the LF alliance with Jumblat, Saad Hariri and Cornet Shahwan was a ‘strategic pact’ for building the new Lebanon.

The Associated Press noted that anti-Syrian forces need a strong showing in Sunday’s vote in the central and eastern regions — at least 45 seats for a majority — to win a firm grasp on the new parliament. But the campaign has led to some surprising alliances and left some races too close to call.

Aoun, who fought and lost a war against Syria in 1989, was one of Syria’s main Lebanese foes but recently broke with other opponents of Damascus and forged alliances with pro-Syrian politicians. The anti-Syrian opposition also teamed up with Hizbullah and Speaker Berri’s pro-Syrian Amal in some districts, The AP reported.

Aoun has concluded a pact with Michel Murr in the Metn constituency against an alliance of ex-President Amin Gemayel, presidential aspirant Nassib Lahoud and Michel Murr’s younger brother Gabriel Murr, whose MTV opposition station was closed down by the Lahoud regime largely for supporting Aoun’s return from exile and deploring the regime’s savage crackdown on Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement activists in Beirut.

The Army command warned its units against taking sides in Sunday’s balloting in Lebanon’s Christian heartland north and northeast of Beirut, the Druze hinterland southeast of the capital and east Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley.

Hizbullah is seen by the local media set to make another strong showing in the Bekaa’s Baalbek-Hermel district in an alliance with Berri’s Amal.

Alright, I can’t help myself.

As it’s already been said, Jumblatt and a top aide of his have already won their own seats uncontested in the Chouf district. Chances are, he is going to win the rest of his list in that district as well. The real surprises will come in the rest of Mt. Lebanon, where the seats are so hotly contested between the Jumblatt alliance and the Aoun alliance that the outcome is not yet predictable. There are some factors to look at, though, which can help us to determine it.

One is the ongoing alliance between the opposition and Hizb’allah. Recently, Nasrallah through his support again behind the Jumblatt list and made peace with Geagea’s Lebanese Forces, who Jumblatt is aligned with now (despite being foes in the civil war). Shiites make up about 15% of the population in this region so that could give Jumblatt an edge.

On the other hand, the Christian population and where their various loyalties lay will be the real wild card. In the last election, Christian voter turnout was very low due to a boycott, but despite the 2000 electoral law still being in place, emotions in this election are obviously running very high. General Aoun is for many Christians a hero of resistance against Syria, so if the Christian turnout is very high, his list may very well overpower Jumblatt’s. This will depend on how they have taken to his alliance with generally pro-Syria candidates, how convincing Aoun’s rhetoric about Jumblatt has been (given Jumblatt’s alliance with other old-Lebanon types), and the strength of the Christian Lebanese Forces voting for Jumblatt’s list. Overall, however, a large Christian turnout will probably benefit Aoun. UPDATE: Reportedly, turnout in some areas topped 50% by mid-day.

Elections are also being held in the Bekaa, but that is much more simple. The Hizb’allah-Amal alliance looks to to do well in the east, the Baalbek-Hermel where most of the seats are allocated to Shiites, whereas the anti-Syria opposition led by Hariri will do well elsewhere. The Western Bekaa and Zahle districts are mostly Sunni and Christian allocated, giving him a boost there.

Next week, voting will take place for the last time in the North, where the anti-Syria opposition looks to do very well despite the number of people contesting for each seat. It look to be quite a sweep actually. This means that the only election battle that is largely undecided is that in Mt. Lebanon, which will either totally cement the Hariri-Jumblatt opposition alliance in the parliament, or it will make it shaky by giving Aoun a steady political ground. The results should be announced tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Prior Reading:
In Lebanon, politics as usual?
Lebanon’s first round begins in Beirut.
Hizb’allah poised to sweep South Lebanon.