Yesterday I posted on the third round of the elections in Lebanon taking place in Bekaa and Mt. Lebanon. It was termed “the mother of all election battles” because it pitted in tightly contested races the electoral lists of the now split opposition led separately by Hariri-Jumblatt and Aoun. A lot of the success of the Hariri-Jumblatt anti-Syria coalition depended on their victory during this round, given that 58 out of 128 seats were at stake. If Aoun scored a steady political ground, it would make the aforementioned much more shaky. Well, he did, so let’s see how well I did with my predictions.

One of the big assertions that I made was that the size of the Christian turnout would affect whether Aoun won or not. Turnout seems to be between 50-60% in most areas, considerably high compared to the last round, and this is what secured his victory. He was able to win 15 seats from his overwhelming victories in Zahle (Bekaa, largest Catholic-populated city in the Middle East), Keserwen-Jbeil, and all but one seat in Matn.

Jumblatt had his victories too, however. He took all eight seats in the Chouf, where the Druze like himself are particularly powerful. His alliance with Hariri also scored in Western Bekaa with seven more seats. The “mother of all election battles” in Baabda-Alley really was just that. Aoun was shown to be breaking through, but the additional backing by Geagea’s Lebanese Forces and Hizb’allah gave Jumblatt and Hariri a slight edge at the end, allowing them to take the district and its eleven seats.

Hizb’allah-Amal, as expected, took the ten seats in Baalbek-Hermel of eastern Bekaa.

Aoun was notably humble after his victory, and promised that he would work with any group willing. On the other hand, Jumblatt threw a fit about “Christian extremists,” in a somewhat telling way. Having lost those seats, I hope that Jumblatt won’t seek allies in more unsavory corners of the country.

Current Seat Count:
Aoun’s opposition alliance: 21
Hariri’s opposition alliance: 46
Hizb’allah-Amal alliance: 33

Next Sunday election will be held in North Lebanon, where 28 seats are up for grabs. This will be a battle between Hariri and Aoun, and though Hariri appears to have a sizeable edge, Aoun has shown that he is revving up the competition by making reconciliation between two Syria allies, whose original split had at first dented his campaign. Now that it has been fixed, next Sunday promises to be exciting as well. The result could be the clinching of a decent majority for the Hariri-Jumblatt alliance, or the taking of the 1/3 seats necessary for Aoun to veto any major legislation in the Lebanese parliament.

In any case, I don’t expect these vast arrays of alliances to hold up. It seems impossible, actually. These are more like marriages of convenience, to make sure that certain politicians and platforms continue to have sway in the new parliament. Aoun is a wild card of sorts, especially if he gets more seats, but I suspect he will do what he believes is good for Lebanon. Jumblatt, on the other hand, has always struck me as something of an opportunist and will likely ally himself with whoever assures him the most influence. Hizb’allah, Amal, and the pro-Syrian politicians that the opposition alliances aligned themselves with is something to be concerned about, but not as much as it would be in the past. These politicians are now accountable to the Lebanese people and their votes alone, which means that they’ll have to work more toward their constituents than previously.

In other words, once the elections are over, I think that all bets are off and the alliances will be re-evaluated as necessary on an individual basis. Saad Hariri does look to be the candidate to beat for the premiership, especially if he gets that majority next week. Aoun has also solidified himself the genuine leader of the Christians as voted into power by Christians. This means he is the most likely candidate for president come 2007 — or if Lahoud is ousted. We’ll have to wait until next week to see exactly if Aoun takes his third or if Hariri takes his majority.

Lastly, if you’re interested more in what Aoun’s victory means, definitely read Tony’s amazing piece.

Prior Reading:
In Lebanon, politics as usual?
Lebanon’s first round begins in Beirut.
Hizb’allah poised to sweep South Lebanon.
Lebanon’s opposition goes head-to-head.